Iran and Russia

Russia Vows to Quickly Complete Iran's First Nuclear Power Station

Associated Press
November 30, 2009

Russia's energy minister pledged on Sunday a quick completion of Iran's first nuclear power station, two weeks after announcing the latest delay, but refrained from giving a specific time for its launch.

The comment from Sergei Shmatko came after talks with Iranian Oil Minister Massoud Mirkazemi and as Iran's government announced plans to build 10 new uranium enrichment plants, in a major expansion of its disputed nuclear programme.

In mid-November, Shmatko said that technical issues would prevent engineers from starting up the reactor at Bushehr -- being built by Russian state contractor Atomstroyexport -- by the end of the year as previously planned.

Moscow, which is under Western pressure to distance itself from Tehran over its nuclear activities, stressed at the time that politics had nothing to do with the delay.

Russia's nuclear chief Sergei Kiriyenko said in February that the Bushehr launch was scheduled for 2009.

Western powers suspect Iran is seeking to build nuclear bombs. Iran, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, denies this and says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.

On Sunday, Shmatko declined to comment on Iran's plan to build 10 new plants and was upbeat on Bushehr, which he said met all requirements of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"We have done our best to complete the project. Now we are testing the system in full compliance with security requirements of IAEA. I'm surprised how well the tests are going," he said.

When pressed on a specific time for the start he said:

"I don't want to guess. What if we have a technical problem and will need a week to fix it?"

Iran's state broadcaster IRIB quoted Shmatko as saying that Bushehr had become "a symbol of cooperation between Iran and Russia and nobody dares to hurt it."

"The quick completion of the Bushehr power plant is the most important issue for both the Iranian and Russian atomic energy organisations," he was quoted as saying.

Shmatko also said he discussed with Mirkazemi joint projects in liquefied natural gas, as Russia is also seeking to become a major LNG player.

IRIB reported the two ministers discussed oil prices and crude output by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers, but Shmatko did not comment to reporters on it.

Iran is a member of OPEC, which has repeatedly sought closer cooperation with non-OPEC member Russia. Last year, Russia said it could consider cutting output with OPEC but later changed its mind and said it had never promised anything to the cartel.

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Iran

Iran Says UN Criticism Prompted New Nuclear Plans

Associated Press
November 30, 2009

Iran had no intention of building 10 new nuclear facilities until it was strongly rebuked by the UN nuclear watchdog over its nuclear activities, the country's nuclear chief said Monday.

Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi told state radio that Iran needed to give a strong response to the International Atomic Energy Agency's resolution Friday demanding that Iran halt to construction of its newly revealed uranium enrichment facility and end all other enrichment activities.

Any new enrichment plants would take years to build and stock with centrifuges - if the material could even be obtained under UN sanctions - but the ambitious plans were a bold show by Iran that it won't back down amid a deadlock in negotiation attempts.

The US and its allies fear the facilities give Iran the capability to produce weapons-grade nuclear material and have called for an immediate halt to the enrichment of uranium.

Iran has rejected such claims, saying its uranium enrichment facilities will only produce fuel for nuclear reactors to generate electricity.

The Cabinet ordered the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to begin building new facilities at five sites that have already been studied and propose five other locations for future construction within two months.

The new sites are to be on the same scale of Iran's only other industrial enrichment plant currently in operation, near the town of Natanz in central Iran.

"We had no intention of building many facilities like the Natanz site, but apparently the West doesn't want to understand Iran's peaceful message," Salehi said.

Salehi, who is also the head of Iran's nuclear program, said the IAEA resolution backed by six world powers left no option for Iran but to give a firm response.

"The action by 5+1 (US, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany) at the IAEA prompted the (Iranian) government to approve a proposal to build 10 sites like that of Natanz," he said.

On Sunday, Salehi said Iran would build its new sites inside mountains to protect it from possible attack because Iran has decided not to let its nuclear activities stop "even for a moment."

Iran aims to generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity through nuclear power plants in the next 20 years. Iranian officials say the new enrichment facilities are needed to produce enough fuel for its future nuclear power plants.

Ahmadinejad told the Cabinet that Iran will need to install 500,000 centrifuges at the planned facilities to produce between 250 to 300 tons of fuel annually.

"We require multiple sites to produce nuclear fuel for us. We need at least ten new sites," Ahmadinejad said in comments broadcast on state TV Monday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said earlier this month that about 8,600 centrifuges had been set up in Natanz, but only about 4,000 were enriching uranium. The facility is designed to eventually house 54,000 centrifuges.

But Iran's newly revealed enrichment site, which set off the latest cycle of concern and criticism over Tehran's nuclear intentions, is a small scale site near the holy city of Qom that will house 3,000 centrifuges.

The IAEA resolution came after Iran rejected a UN-backed plan to ship most of its stock of uranium abroad for further enrichment.

The UN-brokered plan required Iran to send 1.2 tons (1,100 kilograms) of low-enriched uranium - around 70 percent of its stockpile - to Russia in one batch by the end of the year, easing concerns the material would be used for a bomb.

After further enrichment in Russia, France would convert the uranium into fuel rods that would be returned to Iran for use in a reactor in Tehran that produces medical isotopes. Fuel rods cannot be further enriched into weapons-grade material.

Iran had indicated that it may agree to send only "part" of its stockpile in several shipments. Should the talks fail to help Iran obtain the fuel from abroad, Iran has threatened to enrich uranium to the higher level needed to power the research reactor itself domestically.

Salehi said the Iranian Cabinet will discuss the issue Wednesday but didn't give any further details.

Diplomats: Iran Censured at UN Nuclear Meeting

Associated Press
November 27, 2009

In a blow to Iran, the board of the U.N. nuclear agency on Friday overwhelmingly backed a demand from the U.S., Russia, China and three other powers that Tehran immediately stop building its newly revealed nuclear facility and freeze uranium enrichment.

Iranian officials shrugged off approval of the resolution by 25 members of the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency. But the U.S. and its allies hinted of new U.N. sanctions if Tehran remains defiant.

The West said some time remained for Tehran to come around and accept a specific offer that would delay its ability to make a nuclear weapon as well as engage in broader talks with the ultimate goal of persuading it to mothball its enrichment program.

But that window of opportunity would not stay open indefinitely, officials said.

"The next stage will have to be sanctions if Iran doesn't respond to what is a very clear vote from the world community," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the resolution's passage shows that "the international community still wants dialogue with Iran, but time is pressing."

"Our hand is still held out," he added. "I hope Iran will take it. Iran must know: our patience is not infinite."

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs avoided mentioning sanctions — but indicated harsher measures were possible unless Iran compromised.

"Our patience and that of the international community is limited, and time is running out," he said in a statement. "If Iran refuses to meet its obligations, then it will be responsible for its own growing isolation and the consequences."

Iran argues that its nuclear program is aimed at creating a peaceful nuclear energy network to serve its growing population. The U.S. and other nations believe Iran's nuclear program has the goal of creating atomic weapons.

The IAEA resolution criticized Iran for defying a U.N. Security Council ban on uranium enrichment — the source of both nuclear fuel and the fissile core of warheads.

Iran Rebuked By UN Nuclear Body

BBC
November 27, 2009

The UN nuclear watchdog's governing body has passed a resolution condemning Iran for developing a uranium enrichment site in secret. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also demanded that Iran freeze the project immediately.

The resolution, the first against Iran in nearly four years, was passed by a 25-3 margin with six abstentions.

Iran called the move "useless" but the US said it showed time was running out for Iran to address key issues.

Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful energy purposes, but the US says it is seeking nuclear weapons.

In September, it emerged that as well as its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, Iran had a second such facility near the town of Qom. The revelation deepened Western fears about the country's nuclear ambitions.

The IAEA resolution was passed with rare Russian and Chinese backing. Only Cuba, Venezuela and Malaysia voted against it.

It called on Iran to reveal the purpose of the second plant and confirm that it is not building any other undeclared nuclear facilities. After the resolution, the US said Iran needed to address "the growing international deficit of confidence in its intentions".

"Our patience and that of the international community is limited, and time is running out," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.

"If Iran refuses to meet its obligations, then it will be responsible for its own growing isolation and the consequences."

Speaking at a Commonwealth summit in Trinidad and Tobago, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that sanctions were the next step if Iran did not respond to what was "a very clear vote".

Russia's Foreign Ministry urged Iran to react "with full seriousness" to the resolution.

This resolution is a sign of Iran's growing isolation. It is the first at the IAEA since 2006. Crucially it secured the support of Russia and China. That makes it more likely they will vote for new sanctions on Iran when debate is stepped up in the new year, though there are still some tough negotiations ahead.

It seems that Iran's hesitation over a new fuel deal for its Tehran research reactor and its reluctance to engage in more constructive talks has infuriated even those countries which have protected it in the past.

On Thursday IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei, who has always pressed for a compromise solution, expressed his frustration in dealing with Iran.

In response, Iran has threatened to reduce its co-operation with the UN nuclear watchdog, but not to break off ties completely. The real trouble for Tehran is that the Iranian government now seems to be in too much internal turmoil to make clear decisions and follow them through.

But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast called the IAEA vote "a theatrical move aimed at pressuring Iran" that would be "useless", state news agency Irna reported.

And Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said it was a "hasty and undue" step that would jeopardise the chances of success in negotiations.

"The great nation of Iran will never bow to pressure and intimidation vis-a-vis its inalienable right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy," he said.

The resolution came a day after the outgoing head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, expressed frustration at Iran's refusal to accept an international proposal to end the dispute over its nuclear programme.

The plan envisages Iran's low-enriched uranium being shipped overseas for processing into fuel. This is seen as a way for Iran to get the fuel it wants, while giving guarantees to the West that it will not be used for nuclear weapons.

Addressing IAEA governors in Vienna on Thursday, Mr ElBaradei said his inspectors had made no progress in their attempts to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme.

"It is now well over a year since the agency was last able to engage Iran in discussions about these outstanding issues," he said. "We have effectively reached a dead end, unless Iran engages fully with us."

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Israeli-Iranian Conflict

Madsen on RT: Israel Likely to Attack Iran?

Russia Today
November 27, 2009

Recent Israeli military training exercises have raised fears that Israel could initiate an attack on Iran – potentially even a nuclear attack. Israel may be motivated by fears that Iran’s nuclear capabilities could soon surpass Israel’s. Can the U.S. use its influence to persuade Israel to avoid such a course of action? Priya Sridhar talks to investigative reporter Wayne Madsen.

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Israel, the U.S. and the Arab World

U.S. Standoff with Iran: Iran Is Not the Problem

Full Length Video at Google Video

This film is intended to counter the misinformation presented in the U.S. mass media.
Sources are cited at http://www.iranisnottheproblem.com/.

Iran (is not the problem) is a feature length film responding to the failure of the American mass media to provide the public with relevant and accurate information about the standoff between the U.S. and Iran, as happened before with the lead up to the invasion of Iraq.

We have heard that Iran is a nuclear menace in defiance of the international community, bent on "wiping Israel off the map," supporting terrorism, and unwilling to negotiate. This documentary disputes these claims as they are presented to us and puts them in the context of present and historical U.S. imperialism and hypocrisy with respect to Iran.

It looks at the struggle for democracy inside Iran, the consequences of the current escalation and the potential U.S. and/or Israeli attack, and suggests some alternatives to consider.

This 79 minute documentary features Antonia Juhasz (The Bu$h Agenda), Larry Everest (Oil, Power, and Empire), and other activists and Iranian-Americans. The DVD also contains a 20 minute preview version ideal for meetings. The goal of this movie is to promote dialog and change the debate on Iran, so please consider organizing a screening, big or small, in your area.

Produced by Aaron Newman, an independent film-maker and part of the Scary Cow film co-op in San Francisco. He is an anti-imperialism/pro-democracy activist, founder of the SF Chomsky Book Club, and a member of Hands Off Iran.

There are differences of opinion between many of the voices in this film, but all agree that a war would be unjustified.

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Israeli Aircraft Strike Arms Operations in Gaza

Associated Press
November 23, 2009

Israel's military says it has carried out three airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, targeting a weapons-manufacturing facility and weapons smuggling tunnels.

The military says the aerial assaults early Tuesday came in response to two rockets Palestinian militants fired at southern Israel from Gaza a day earlier. No one was injured by the rocket fire.

The rocket attacks violated an agreement over the weekend by militant factions in Gaza to halt them.

Separately, Gaza's Islamic Hamas rulers reported that two of the group's militants were killed when a rocket they were handling blew up prematurely.

Israeli Aircraft Strike Gaza Targets

Associated Press
November 22, 2009

Israeli aircraft attacked two suspected weapons-making factories and a smuggling tunnel in the Gaza Strip early Sunday in what the military said was retaliation for Palestinian rocket fire into southern Israel.

The airstrikes, which wounded at least seven people - including one seriously - came despite an announcement by Gaza's Hamas rulers that the territory's military factions had all agreed to stop firing rockets. The Hamas announcement came late Saturday, after the rocket attack.

Hamas' interior minister, Fathi Hamad, said the proclaimed halt in rocket fire was designed to prevent Israeli retaliation and provide stability for Gaza, which continues to suffer from the aftermath of a massive Israeli military offensive in December and January.

The offensive killed some 1,400 Palestinians, according to U.N. and Palestinian estimates, and damaged or destroyed thousands of homes. Thirteen Israelis also were killed. Most of the damage in Gaza has not been repaired due to an Israeli blockade that has prevented construction materials from entering the territory.

Israel said it launched the offensive to crush Palestinian rocket squads, who had severely disrupted life in southern Israel for years. While Hamas has all but halted its own rocket fire, smaller militant groups have continued to launch attacks, though the number of attacks has decreased dramatically.

On Sunday, Islamic Jihad, a smaller faction responsible for much of the rocket fire, said there is "no formal truce," but confirmed it would temporarily stop its attacks.

"Yes, there is a halt, but if there are attacks by the Zionist enemies, as there inevitably will be, there will be a response," said Khader Habib, a spokesman for the group.

An end to Palestinian rocket attacks could be an important step toward a broader prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas. The Iranian-backed Hamas is demanding the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchanged for Sgt. Gilad Schalit, who was captured by Hamas-allied militants more than three years ago.

Usama Mazeini, a Hamas official involved in the German-brokered negotiations over Schalit, told Hamas newsletter al-Risala on Saturday that the talks are close to resolving the "obstacles" that remain.

He gave no further details, but the publication quoted anonymous Hamas officials as saying a deal is "reaching completion."

Later Sunday, Israel's army chief, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, said he was "sober" about the prospects for a deal but said media reports about the matter threatened progress.

"We have a deep commitment ... to bring him home, but I prefer to leave this effort behind the scenes."

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Iran

Iran Begins Large-Scale Air Defense War Games to Protect Nuclear Facilities

AP
November 22, 2009

Iran on Sunday began large-scale air defense war games aimed at protecting its nuclear facilities from attack, state TV reported, as an air force commander boasted the country could deter any military strike by Israel.

It said the five-day drill will cover an area a third of the size of Iran and spread across the central, western and southern parts of the country.

Gen. Ahmad Mighani, head of an air force unit in charge of responding to threats to Iran's air space, said Saturday the war games would cover regions where Iran's nuclear facilities are located.

The drill involves Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard, the paramilitary Basij forces affiliated with the Guard as well as army units.

The United States and its European allies accuse Iran of embarking on a nuclear weapons program. Iran denies the charge and insists the program is only for peaceful purposes.

Israel has not ruled out military action to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

The commander of the Guard's air force, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, meanwhile sought on Sunday to play down the significance of Israel's threats against his country, saying they amounted to psychological warfare.

"We are sure they are not able to do anything against us since they cannot predict our reaction," Hajizadeh was quoted as saying by the Guard's official Web site, Sephahnews.

"If their fighter planes could escape from Iran's air defense system, their bases will be hit by our devastating surface-to-surface missiles before they land," he said.

Also on Sunday, Iran's defense minister, Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, said Iran planned to pursue designing and producing its own air defense missiles, according to the official IRNA news agency.

His comments were apparently in response to the delay in the delivery from Russia of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, meant to be a key component of Iran's air defense.

Iran complains that the delay is apparently the result of Israeli and U.S. pressure.

Israel and the United States have opposed the missile deal out of fear Iran could use the system to significantly boost air defenses at its nuclear sites — including its main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.

Commenting on this week's war games, a senior Obama administration official urged Iran to engage with the international community.

"We would prefer that the Iranian regime follow through on their offer to engage," said Ellen Tauscher, the U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security.

"It is more important for them to build confidence with the international community," she said at a news conference Sunday at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia.

Iran Wants Nuclear Fuel Guarantees

AFP
November 22, 2009

Iran's envoy to the UN atomic watchdog said on Sunday that Tehran wants a guaranteed supply of fuel for a research reactor as a military chief warned that any attack on its nuclear sites would be crushed.

Ali Asghar Soltanieh, envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reiterated that Tehran is ready for further talks on supplying fuel for the internationally supervised reactor in the capital.

"The main issue is how to get a guarantee for the timely supply of fuel which Iran needs," Soltanieh was quoted as saying by ISNA news agency.

"We are ready to have negotiations with a positive approach, but because of lack of confidence with the West, we need to have those guarantees."

He spoke days after the Islamic republic rejected a deal brokered by the IAEA which proposed that Tehran send most of its stock of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia and France for conversion into fuel for the research reactor.

However, Iran said it was ready for a simultaneous exchange inside the country of its LEU for nuclear fuel supplied by the West.

Western powers strongly back the IAEA-drafted deal as they fear Iran could further enrich its LEU for use in making atomic weapons, a charge Tehran denies.

A senior US official on Sunday urged Iran to "engage" with the West over its nuclear programme.

"We would prefer that the Iranian regime follow through on the opportunity to engage," Ellen Tauscher, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the State Department, told the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada.

"If persuasion doesn't work, pressure is going to have to be the next line of action," she warned in a reference to possible further sanctions.

But, she added, "I don't believe (military action against Iran) is on the table now."

The United States and Israel have never ruled out military action to prevent Iran acquiring a bomb. Israel is widely suspected to be the Middle East's sole -- albeit undeclared -- nuclear-armed power.

A commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that its air defences would annihilate Israeli warplanes if they attacked.

"Their F-15 and F-16 fighters will be trapped by our air defence forces and will be annihilated," Guards' air wing chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh told Fars news agency as war games aimed at honing a response to any assault on Iran's nuclear sites began.

"Even if their planes escape and land at the bases from which they took off, their bases will be struck by our destructive surface-to-surface missiles."

An aide to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that if Iran was attacked, it would retaliate against Tel Aviv in Israel.

Enrichment lies at the heart of the Iran nuclear controversy. Enriched uranium can be used to power reactors, but in purer form it can also be used in the fissile core of an atomic weapon.

Soltanieh said that under IAEA rules, member states can enrich uranium to any level.

"There is no limit to enrichment for members of the IAEA. There is no ceiling," he said. "The member countries are however required to declare to the agency their enrichment levels and the agency has to verify it."

He clarified that Iran's main enrichment plant in the central city of Natanz was enriching uranium to five percent purity.

Iran is building a second enrichment plant near the holy city of Qom. Its disclosure in September triggered outrage in the West, prompting world powers to threaten fresh sanctions if Tehran did not come clean on its atomic project.

Tehran is already under three sets of UN sanctions for enriching uranium at Natanz.

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Iran

Obama Says US, Allies Discussing Iran Sanctions

Associated Press
November 19, 2009

Showing impatience with Iranian foot-dragging, President Barack Obama said Thursday that the U.S. and its allies are discussing possible new penalties against Iran for defying international attempts to halt its contested nuclear program.

Obama's warning came after Iran rejected a compromise proposal to ship its low-enriched uranium abroad so that it could not be further enriched to make weapons. Talk of fresh sanctions also showed that Obama is preparing for the next phase should Iran fail to meet his year-end deadline for progress in negotiations.

"They have been unable to get to `yes', and so as a consequence, we have begun discussions with our international partners about the importance of having consequences," Obama said at a news conference with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

"Our expectation is, is that over the next several weeks we will be developing a package of potential steps that we could take that will indicate our seriousness to Iran."

The U.S. is meeting in Brussels on Friday with five other nations -- Britain, China, France, Russia and Germany -- to discuss what measures could be used against Iran, according to an EU official who spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to disclose details of the gathering.

The tough talk on Iran came as Obama wrapped up an eight-day, four-nation tour of Asia in which global issues -- nuclear disarmament, climate change, economic recovery -- dominated and goodwill abounded. There also were few new agreements on pending issues...

In talking tough about possible sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, Obama left open the option that diplomacy could still work.

"I continue to hold out the prospect that they may decide to walk through this door" and accept the proposal to ship its low-enriched uranium out of the country, Obama said.

A senior administration official later said Obama was purposely vague on more diplomacy so as not to undermine the search for international consensus that remains in an embryonic phase. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the president's thinking.

Possible sanctions are likely to take months to enact, if the difficulties in crafting this year's U.N. sanctions on North Korea are any indication. China, always reluctant to support sanctions, offered no public assurances that it would agree to punish Iran. As for Russia, whose support also would be vital, White House official Mike McFaul said days ago that the U.S. is "exactly on the same page with the Russians" in exploring diplomacy and consequences.

South Korea gave Obama one of the warmest welcomes during the trip. Crowds lined the motorcade route; some shouted "Obama." After the news conference, Obama and Lee hugged, an unusual gesture in a region noted for its formality.

The only off-note was on the pending free trade agreement, stuck in part because U.S. lawmakers worry it could hurt the struggling American auto industry. Obama said he was committed to completing a deal and that teams from both countries were trying to resolve sticking points.

Lee said the pact was not only economic but strategic -- suggesting an agreement would further cement the U.S.-South Korean alliance. He urged political will to complete it.

Six World Powers to Meet on Iran Nuclear Deal

BBC
November 20, 2009

...The Russian government insisted that there was still "every chance" of reaching a deal with Iran on enrichment, and denied that it had been discussing further sanctions with Washington.

"As far as we know, there has so far been no final official answer from Tehran," Russian foreign ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said in a statement. "It is important to let diplomacy work, and superfluous emotions only harm the situation."

"There is currently no discussion on working out additional sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council," he added.

During Mr Obama's recent visit to China he received no assurances that it would support new sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council. France and the UK want Iran to accept the deal.

Iran Rejects Deal on Sending Uranium Abroad

Associated Press
November 18, 2009

Iran will not ship its low-enriched uranium out of the country for processing, its foreign minister said Wednesday, once again rejecting a U.N. plan aimed at thwarting any attempt by Tehran to make nuclear weapons.

Instead, Foreign Minister Manochehr Mottaki countered with a proposal certain to fall short of Western demands.

The United Nations last month offered a deal to take 70 percent of Iran's low-enriched uranium to reduce its stockpile of material that could be enriched to a higher level, and possibly be used to make nuclear weapons.

That uranium would be returned about a year later as refined fuel rods, which can power reactors but cannot be readily turned into weapons-grade material. Iran maintains its nuclear protgram is only for the peaceful purpose of generating energy.

"We will definitely not send our 3.5-percent enriched uranium out of the country," Mottaki told the semiofficial ISNA news agency. But he added: "That means a simultaneous fuel swap could be considered inside Iran."

The counterproposal was an indication of Iran's unwillingness to trust the West with its fuel for the time needed to transform it into the more harmless fuel rods.

Mottaki said that Iranian experts were looking at the modified proposal to determine what amounts of uranium should be exchanged for fuel rods.

However it remained unclear what would happen with Iran's uranium, if it would be shipped out of the country as part of the trade or remain inside Iran.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Ian C. Kelly said the U.S. was waiting for Iran to submit its formal response to the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA.

"What was said today doesn't inspire our confidence" that Iran will accept the proposal that was tentatively agreed to in Geneva.

President Barack Obama said during a visit to China on Tuesday that there would be repercussions if Iran rejected the latest plan.

The idea of Tehran shipping uranium for further enrichment was first raised at a landmark meeting with the U.S. and other world powers at the beginning of October in Geneva. At the time, Iran also agreed to inspections after the disclosure of a once-secret uranium enrichment facility plant known as Fordo, near the holy city of Qom.

Kelly said the U.S. was still consulting with its negotiating partners on a way forward. At some point, he said, the focus would turn to ways of increasing sanctions pressure on Iran, adding:

"We're not quite at that point now. But time is short."

Under the U.N. proposal, Iran would export its uranium, which is enriched at less than 5 percent - enough to produce fuel to burn in plants. Enriching uranium to much higher levels can produce weapons-grade material.

In exchange, the Iranian uranium would be further enriched in Russia and then be sent to France. Once there, it would be converted into fuel rods, which would be returned to Iran.

The amount of uranium that would be exported by Iran under the U.N. plan, about 1.2 tons (1,100 kilograms), represents about 70 percent of its stockpile. It would have been sent to Russia in one batch by the end of the year, easing concerns the material would be used for a weapon.

Around 2,200 pounds of low-enriched uranium is needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear warhead, according to experts. Iran is believed to have well over that amount of low-enriched uranium in its stockpiles.

Mottaki's proposal indicated that Iran was open to further negotiation when he dismissed a comment by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton that the U.N. plan was its only choice.

"Diplomacy is not all or nothing. Mrs. Clinton's comments that Iran must accept only this proposal is not diplomatic," he said.

The U.S. and its allies see the export process as buying time to reach a compromise with Iran by depriving it of the amount of uranium needed to potentially make a nuclear bomb. Western powers believe Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, or at least the ability to produce them on short notice.

IAEA inspectors visited Fordo last month.

The heavily fortified and bunker-like uranium enrichment facility has further heightened Western suspicions about the extent and intent of Iran's nuclear program.

Ali Asghar Soltanieh, chief Iranian delegate to the IAEA, said that Fordo looked the way it was because uranium enrichment will "not be stopped by military attack - that is the political message of this site."

He added that "the important message is ... enrichment in Iran will continue at any price."

Iran says the facility was fortified to protect it against any possible attack by the U.S. or Israel.

Officials say the plant won't be operational for another 18 months and would produce uranium enrichment levels up to 5 percent, suitable only for peaceful purposes. Weapons-grade material is more than 90 percent enriched.

Iran Says Nuclear 'Enemies' Defeated

AFP
November 16, 2009

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday the "enemies" of his country's nuclear programme had been defeated ahead of the release of the latest UN report on the atomic drive.

International attention focused on the report as US President Barack Obama said "time is running out" for Iran to respond to a UN plan aiming to ease international fears that the Islamic Republic is working on a nuclear bomb.

Russia, meanwhile, announced that a controversial nuclear power plant it is building in Iran will not start operations by the end of 2009 as previously announced.

Ahmadinejad said the West would have to come to terms with Iran's nuclear progress, Iran's state broadcaster quoted the president as saying on his website.

"Enemies have politicised the nuclear issue using all of their abilities to try to make the Iranian nation surrender, but they have been defeated," Ahmadinejad said.

Nuclear cooperation with Iran is "beneficial to the Westerners because their opposition to it will make Iran stronger and more advanced," he added insisting that Iran's nuclear rights are "non-negotiable" and the research was being pursued "entirely under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision."

The IAEA sent its new report, having stated several times that Iran is not cooperating with UN Security Council demands, backed by three rounds of sanctions, that it halt uranium enrichment.

The new report will also give details of an October visit to an atomic site at Qom, that Iran had until recently kept secret.

Obama on Sunday won the strongest backing yet from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev over international frustration at Iran's failure to answer an offer to enrich uranium outside of Iran.

"Unfortunately, so far at least, Iran has been unable to say yes" to the proposal, Obama said after talks with Medvedev in Singapore. "We now are running out of time with respect to that approach."

Russia, which has the strongest ties with Tehran of any big power, has traditionally been unwilling to punish Iran with tough measures. But Medvedev said that Tehran risked sanctions if the crisis continued.

He said Moscow was "not completely happy about the pace" of efforts to resolve the crisis.

"In case we fail, the other options remain on the table, in order to move the process in a different direction," he said in a reference to new UN sanctions against Tehran.

Russia's Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said that the Bushehr nuclear plant would not now be ready this year, Russian news agencies reported. Shmatko insisted the delay was technical and the project would still go forward.

Russia, like the United States, is a veto-wielding UN Security Council permanent member, and its support is crucial if US warnings of tough sanctions are to carry weight.

Obama described as "fair" the proposal offered to Iran, which would see Russia lead an international consortium helping Tehran to further enrich uranium for a research reactor.

Referring to sanctions, he said that "we will begin to discuss and prepare for these other pathways" as Tehran could not be counted on to fulfil its international obligations.

The West suspects Tehran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon under cover of its civilian nuclear energy programme. Iran vehemently denies the claims while Russia has said there is no evidence to support the accusations.

IAEA Secretary General Mohamed ElBaradei, whose mandate finishes this month, is to chair his last board of governor's meeting on November 26, during which the new report will be discussed.

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Israeli Aircraft Hit Gaza After Rocket Attacks

Associated Press
November 19, 2009

Israeli aircraft struck a weapons-manufacturing facility and two smuggling tunnels in the southern Gaza Strip on Thursday, in response to recent rocket attacks on Israel, the military said.

Palestinian security officials reported no injuries.

Israel went to war against militants in Hamas-ruled Gaza last winter to quash eight years of rocket and mortar fire that terrorized southern Israel and killed 18 civilians.

More than 1,400 Palestinians were killed in the war, and since it ended on Jan. 18, the attacks have decreased sharply. According to the military's count, 270 rockets and mortars have been fired at Israel since the three-week offensive ended on Jan. 18, compared with more than 3,300 in 2008.

But Israel says weapons and weapons-making components still reach militants through tunnels under Gaza's border with Egypt. And sporadic fire continues, including a rocket attack Wednesday that caused no injuries.

The Israeli military said in a statement that it would "respond to any attempt to disrupt the calm in Israel's southern communities."

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Israel, the U.S. and the Arab World

Extraordinary U.S.-Israel-Egyptian-Jordanian Intelligence Summit Held in Early November

DEBKAfile
November 12, 2009

The crisis over Iran's nuclear program and possible outbreak of a regional war occasioned an extraordinary secret conclave of the intelligence chiefs of four nations in Amman in the first week of November, DEBKAfile's military and intelligence sources disclose. Hosted by the chief of Jordan's General Intelligence Service, Gen. Muhammad Raqed, it was attended by senior officials of the American CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency, Israel's Mossad chief, Meir Dagan and military intelligence head Brig. Amos Yadlin and Egypt's intelligence minister, Gen. Omar Suleiman. As soon as the meeting ended, Suleiman set out for Riyadh to brief the head of Saudi general intelligence Prince Moqrin bin Abdul Aziz.

Our sources add that the unpublicized get-together took place just a few days before Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US president Barack Obama conversed at the White House Monday, Nov. 9. They therefore had its conclusions before them when they talked. Two days later, Netanyahu passed input from the intelligence summit to French president Nicolas Sarkozy when he stopped over in Paris.

It was the first time Israel had taken part in a secret meeting of Middle East intelligence chiefs whose purpose was to coordinate their steps.

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Iran

Diplomats: Iran Nuke Plant is 7 Years Old

Tri-City Herald
November 12, 2009

Iran's recently revealed uranium enrichment hall is a highly fortified underground space that appears too small to house a civilian nuclear program, but large enough to serve for military activities, diplomats told The Associated Press on Thursday.

Iran began building the facility near the holy city of Qom seven years ago, and after bouts of fitful construction could finish the project in a year, the diplomats said.

Both the construction timeline and the size of the facility - inspected last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency - are significant in helping shed light on Tehran's true nuclear intentions.

Iran says it wants to enrich only to make atomic fuel for energy production, but the West fears it could retool its program to churn out fissile warhead material.

One of the diplomats - a senior official from a European nation - said Thursday that the enrichment hall is too small to house the tens of thousands of centrifuges needed for peaceful industrial nuclear enrichment, but is the right size to contain the few thousand advanced machines that could generate the amount of weapons-grade uranium needed to make nuclear warheads.

The pauses in construction may reflect Tehran's determination to keep its activities secret as far back as 2002, when Iran's clandestine nuclear program was revealed.

Citing satellite imagery, the diplomats said Iran started building the plant in 2002, paused for two years in 2004 - the same year it suspended enrichment on an international demand - and resumed construction in 2006, when enrichment was also restarted.

Since then, Iran has defied three sets of U.N. Security Council sanctions aimed at forcing it to again freeze uranium enrichment.

All of the diplomats have access to information compiled by the IAEA, and demanded anonymity in exchange for discussing confidential matters with the AP.

Iran informed the IAEA only in September that it was building the facility near Qom, leading the U.S., British and French leaders to denounce Tehran for keeping its existence secret. IAEA inspectors visited the plant last month.

Iran says it fulfilled its legal obligations over when it revealed the plant's construction, though IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has said Tehran was "outside the law" and should have informed his agency when the decision to construct was made.

Western officials suspicious of Tehran's nuclear program believe the Islamic Republic only decided to inform the IAEA after it became convinced that the plant's existence had been noted by foreign intelligence services.

The Qom facility is the second known Iranian plant designed for enrichment. The first facility at Natanz, revealed by Iranian dissidents in 2002, has since grown to house around 9,000 centrifuges and has churned enough low-enriched uranium to turn into material for one or two nuclear warheads.

Low-enriched material is suitable for what Iran says will be a nationwide nuclear power grid. But that stockpile can be enriched further to weapons grade warhead material.

After years of expansion, the Natanz program, which relies on antiquated centrifuges based on black market imports, appears to be running into problems associated with increasing the number of operating centrifuges.

The senior diplomat said Iran was only using about 5,000 of the centrifuges set up at Natanz which were turning out about 80 kilograms - less than 200 pounds - of low-enriched uranium a month. That, he said, amounted to roughly the same output using the same number of machines as in September, when the IAEA last reported on Iran to its 35 board member nations.

He said breakdowns and maintenance of the old centrifuges appeared to account for the stagnation. In contrast, the facility near Qom appears designed to shelter fewer but more modern models configured to churn out more enriched material faster.

International hopes that Iran was ready for at least a partial concession on enrichment were raised after Tehran signaled in early October it was ready to send most of its enriched Natanz stockpile abroad to be turned into metal fuel for its small research reactor. Tehran would have needed at least a year to produce enough new material to replace what it shipped out, thereby delaying its ability to produce weapons-grade uranium should it have chosen to do so.

Since then, however, Iranian officials have overwhelmingly - if unofficially - rejected exporting most of their enriched uranium.

The senior diplomat said nuclear negotiators from the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - the six nations trying to entice Tehran into enrichment concessions - planned to meet next week to discuss further strategy, including the possible threat of new U.N. sanctions on Tehran for its nuclear defiance.

Exile Group: Iran Making Major Security Changes

Tri-City Herald
November 12, 2009

An Iranian opposition leader said Thursday that the country is making sweeping changes to its security apparatus in an effort to consolidate the power of the elite Revolutionary Guard.

Maryam Rajavi, head of the National Council of Resistance of Iran - a Paris-based umbrella opposition group - said the alleged changes and accompanying purges stem from worries about the loyalty of the security forces as the nation experiences its most significant unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran had announced a reorganization of its security forces following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in June. But the changes Rajavi contended are taking place have so far been unknown.

The Paris-based National Council of Resistance has frequently made accusations about Iran's covert activities, based on what it says is information from sources inside the country. Some of its claims have been borne out; others have not been substantiated.

The council is regarded as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government.

Farzad A. Farhangian, a spokesman for the Iranian embassy in Brussels, said it was a waste of time to comment on the "baseless and false claims ... of a small group of international terrorists."

The Revolutionary Guard, directly controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has in recent years expanded its influence into key economic and technological sectors, including the nation's nuclear program. It operates independently of the armed forces and maintains a nationwide network of militia groups, known as Basij.

Rajavi said authorities in Iran have concealed the extent of the changes to the security structure.

"The new organization, the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, will from this point onward act as the regime's main security force," Rajavi told journalists Thursday in Brussels.

She said that Hossein Taeb, previously commander of the Basij militia, has been named to head the new agency.

"Its command structure is linked directly to Khamenei (and) its formation marks an unprecedented transformation for the regime's intelligence and suppressive apparatus," Rajavi said.

She said the guard's intelligence agency will incorporate seven existing security organizations. These include sections of the Internal Security Directorate and Ministry of Intelligence and Security, the Security Directorate of the Basij force, anti-riot forces and the main security headquarters for Tehran, Rajavi said.

"The objective is to centralize the intelligence and security organs in a way that makes the new organization dominant and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security subservient," she said. "The new organization will be directly controlled by Khamenei (and) will not be dependent on the president or the Majlis (parliament)."

In 2002, the National Council of Resistance of Iran disclosed the existence of two previously secret nuclear facilities - a pilot uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a research reactor being built in the city of Arak, which turned out to house Iran's uranium enrichment program and a hard-water reactor project.

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Israel, the U.S. and the Arab World

Obama Asks Netanyahu for More Time for Dialogue with Iran

DEBKAfile
November 10, 2009

President Barack Obama and prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu talked for more than an hour and a half in the White House Tuesday, Nov. 9, all but fifteen minutes without advisers. There were no cameras and the usual post-meeting press briefings, joint communiques and interviews were cancelled. A curt White House statement said:

"The president reaffirmed our strong commitment to Israel's security, and discussed security cooperation on a range of issues. The president and prime minister also discussed Iran and how to move forward on Middle East peace."

Netanyahu then headed out to Paris to see President Nicolas Sarkozy later Tuesday.

DEBKAfile reported Monday: US official sources admitted Monday, Nov. 9, that Tehran had finally blocked every compromise offered by the Obama administration through backdoor channels. This and the US president Barack Obama's Middle East peace initiative have both run into the sand. Secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Middle East envoy George Mitchell informed him last week after their failed bid to persuade the Palestinians to sit down and talk peace with Israel.

Clinton found Mahmoud Abbas in Abu Dhabi with one foot out of the Palestinian Authority leadership and exploiting Obama's misplaced reliance on a total Israeli settlement construction freeze on the West Bank and in Jerusalem to strike a rejectionist position for the sake of restoring his tattered credibility on the Palestinian street. On that score, there is nothing much for Obama to discuss with visiting Binyamin Netanyahu Tuesday, Nov. 10, although both found themselves under pressure to meet during Netanyahu's brief visit to Washington to address the General Assembly of the North American Jewish Federations.

A new Palestinian leader might find a way out of the impasse, but none is in the sights of the US president, the Israeli prime minister or the Palestinians. Even if a reasonable figure was found, it would take a newcomer to the PA leadership a couple of years to find his feet and establish himself. During that period, assuming the lid stayed clamped down on Palestinian terrorist action from the West Bank - which is far from a certainty - the peace track would be frozen solid.

Our Washington sources do not expect Mitchell to return to the Middle East any time soon.

The situation with Iran is much more fraught because time is running out as Iran speeds toward its nuclear and missile goals. In the summer, Netanyahu gave Obama a guarantee to hold off on a military initiative against Iran until the end of the year to give his diplomatic engagement effort a chance.

This deadline is now only seven weeks away. DEBKAfile's Washington sources are assuming that the US president will use the Israeli prime minister's brief Washington visit to ask him to extend this deadline a while longer to permit him a last throw at cajoling Iran to accept a deal over its uranium enrichment. Our sources do not expect Netanyahu to refuse the president, both for the sake of his good standing with the Obama administration and because he too is in no hurry to cross the Rubicon for an act of war against Iran...

Obama Reaffirms 'Strong Commitment' to Israel's Security

Haaretz
November 9, 2009

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama held a private meeting on Monday night, during which the two discussed Iran's nuclear ambitions as well as stalled Middle East peace talks.

"The president reaffirmed our strong commitment to Israel's security, and discussed security cooperation on a range of issues," said a statement issued by the White House after the one hour and forty minute closed-door session concluded.

A press briefing with Netanyahu scheduled for Tuesday morning was canceled. The prime minister leaves Washington on Tuesday for Paris, where he is scheduled to meet with French President Nicholas Sarkozy on Wednesday.

Prior to the meeting, sources close to Netanyahu said he would tell Obama that he was "very serious" about wanting to advance peace talks with the Palestinians during the two meeting on Monday.

The last-minute scheduling of Netanyahu's White House meeting, after Israeli officials said over the past several weeks that Netanyahu hoped to see Obama, was widely seen as a sign of strained relations between the two leaders.

"We mean business," Netanyahu was to tell the American president, and add that Israel was ready to be "generous" in scaling back the construction in West Bank settlements.

Before sitting down with Netanyahu, Obama and members of his senior staff visited with Jewish leaders from across the country who were attending the meeting of the Jewish Federations of North America. Obama thanked the Jewish leaders for their work in their own communities, and recognized the Jewish Federations for the "countless hours of tzedakah (charity) performed every day of every week."

In the past, Netanyahu has rebuffed Obama's calls for a complete freeze on settlement activity, including the expansion of current ones. The Palestinians have demanded a settlement freeze as a condition for the resumption of stalled peace talks. The opposing standpoints have effectively brought the peace process to a halt.

Netanyahu was also going to tell Obama that there was never any Israeli intention to halt settlement construction before entering into talks with the Palestinians.

"What more do I need to do?" he was to ask.

Sources close to the prime minister have said that Netanyahu is convinced he is doing everything in his power to advance the peace process.

Netanyahu was also to voice his willingness to make concessions in efforts to achieve an agreement. However, he was to stress his refusal to compromise Israel's security in the process, placing an emphasis on the importance of preventing the influx of weapons into any territory that Israel should withdraw from under a future deal.

He was to add that up until this point, the security arrangements between Israel and Lebanon and Israel and Gaza have proven ineffective.

However, at the State Department, spokesman Ian C. Kelly said the administration's special envoy for Mideast peace, George Mitchell, has no immediate plans to return to the region to continue his push for a resumption of peace talks.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs fielded questions ahead of the Netanyahu-Obama meeting, saying that the "policy of the United States government for many decades has been no more settlements. That's not something that is new to this administration. It's something that I think has gotten disproportionate media coverage, but it's not a policy difference in this administration and previous administrations.

Meeting Between Netanyahu, Obama Ends After Nearly 2 Hours

Jerusalem Post
November 9, 2009

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu held a lengthy meeting with US President Barack Obama Monday night which addressed the Middle East peace process, Iran and Israeli security.

The one-hour-and-forty-minute parley was accompanied by an unusual news blackout, as the standard photo op and press availability were not held. In addition, Netanyahu canceled a scheduled briefing with Israeli reporters and Defense Minister Ehud Barak scrapped plans for radio interviews following the talks.

Instead, both sides referred to a brief statement put out by the White House after the Monday evening meeting, about half of which was one-on-one and half of which included four members of staff on each side.

Barak, Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren, National Security Council head Uzi Arad and PMO adviser Yitzhak Molcho joined Netanyahu.

"The president reaffirmed our strong commitment to Israel's security, and discussed security cooperation on a range of issues," the US statement read. "The president and prime minister also discussed Iran and how to move forward on Middle East peace."

Earlier in the day, Obama met with about 60 senior representatives of Jewish federations following the cancellation of his appearance at the federations' conference Tuesday.

Speaking at a White House reception, Obama urged the group to address health care legislation making its way through Congress, a major priority of the president.

He also thanked them for the "countless hours of tzedakah [charity] performed every day of every week," according to a statement put out after the event by the Jewish Federations of North America.

Participants told The Jerusalem Post that Obama did not address the issue of Israel or the wider Middle East during his very short remarks, but that several members of the crowd raised the issue with him did his brief appearance in the room.

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Israel, the U.S. and the Arab World

Syrian President Sways from Peace Overtures to Threats of War Against Israel

Jerusalem Post
November 9, 2009

Syrian President Bashar Assad continued to sway from peace overtures to threats of war on Monday, stressing that resistance might be used to "return" the Golan Heights.

"Resisting occupation is a patriotic duty and to support it is a moral and legal imperative…and an honor of which we are proud," said Assad in a speech to the 25th Economic Summit of the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (COMCEC) in Istanbul.

"This does not contradict our unceasing desire to achieve a just and comprehensive peace on the basis of the return of the occupied territories, especially the occupied Syrian Golan, but the failure of negotiations to restore all our rights would make resistance an alternative solution," he said, in an apparent allusion to acts of violence and terror against Israel committed by "resistance" movements such as Hizbullah.

Concerning the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Assad said that stopping settlement construction was not an end in itself, but a means to an end.

"What about dismantling settlements instead of stopping construction, and most importantly, what about ending the occupation?" he said.

The Syrian president went on to say that the real cause of the problem in the region was "the Zionist occupation" which "we must begin to work to eliminate."

Assad cited the world's "negative" response to the Goldstone Commission's report, as well as its "indifferent reaction" to what he termed "one of the worst war crimes ever known in modern times" - apparently referring to Israel's three-week offensive in Gaza - as reasons for the Arab and Islamic world to be more self-sufficient.

"Internationally banned weapons are being used against [Gazan] civilians, showing Israel's barbarianism," said the Syrian president. "[The world's reaction] proves that none of our goals
will be achieved by relying on others."

At the end of October, Assad said that Damascus was ready to resume peace talks with Jerusalem, stressing that the people of his country would support negotiations.

"As far as it concerns us in Syria, we have national support to continue talks with Israel," Assad said in Zagreb after meeting Croatian President Stipe Mesic. "However, there is a condition that on the Israeli side we also have those who want to continue the negotiations."

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Israeli-Iranian Conflict

Ahmadinejad to Cancel Food, Fuel Subsidies for Transfer to Nuclear Orojects

DEBKAfile
November 8, 2009

Iran's parliament (Majlis) Sunday, Nov. 8, granted president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unlimited control of an estimated $30-50 billion of national treasure under legislation empowering him to cancel government subsidies on food and fuel. He gained majority endorsement for these measures over the objections of the Speaker Ali Larijani, who demanded Majlis oversight of the recycled expenditure.

DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report that the president demanded the transfer of subsidy funding to the nation's nuclear and missile programs, preparations for war and measures to offset international sanctions.

Ahmadinejad's parliamentary initiative and his overwhelming victory belied suppositions in some Western circles that he was actually in favor of a nuclear accommodation with the world powers but was obstructed by hardline opposition to his purported "pragmatic" policy.

His success in ramming the new measures through parliament Sunday proved he was at the peak of his political strength and determined as never before to defy the world. The president was able to make himself dictator of national expenditure and gain control over the wherewithal he sought for pushing ahead with his plans to arm Iran with a nuclear weapon and fund the military preparations for war against the powers who would stand in his way.

With the annual subsidy of $90 billion in government subsidies now at his disposal, the president is in a position to manipulate fuel prices in order to keep Iran standing on its feet under a new round of international sanctions. The radical Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, one of his leading allies, justified the cancellation of subsidies with a sophistic argument:

"It is oppression when 30 percent of society that is rich and middle class, receives 70 percent of the subsidies. This must stop," he said.

When the Islamic regime last tried to cancel subsidies, it was forced to back down by rioting in Iran's cities. Ahmadinejad proposes to offer the poorer classes the sop of a $17 handout to every low-income household.

DEBKAfile's Iranian sources say that this meager pittance will hardly compensate the impoverished majority of the population for losing the basics of subsistence at affordable prices to the grandiose plans managed by the Revolutionary Guards and Ahmadinejad - certainly not for the soaring inflation which the removal of subsidies will generate. But for now on, the people will have no recourse to parliament for help but have to rely on the mercy of President Ahmadinejad.

Israel Warns IDF Ready to Roll Against Iran

Israel National News
November 6, 2009

Israel's warnings that it will not tolerate an existential threat in the form of a nuclear Iran should be taken seriously, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned in an interview with the Britain-based Sky News on Friday.

"The one who's bluffing is Iran, which is trying to play with cards they don't have," Ayalon told the news network. "All the bravado that we see and the testing and the very dangerous and harsh rhetoric are hiding a lot of weaknesses."

Israel has repeatedly warned the Islamic Republic -- and the rest of the world -- that it will not allow Iran to complete its nuclear development program and create an atomic weapon to be aimed at the Jewish State.

"If Iranian behavior and conduct continues as they have exhibited so far, it is obvious that their intentions are only to buy time and procrastinate," Ayalon said. He pointed out that negotiations with Western nations have not resulted in any reduction in Iranian nuclear activities.

Iran has vowed to continue all of its nuclear development programs regardless of what proposals for alternatives are offered by Western nations in diplomatic talks. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared last Sunday that Iran is negotiating with the West from a position of power, and compared the power of Iran's enemies to that of "a mosquito."

IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi politely warned the Islamic Republic in September that the Jewish State is prepared to defend itself against any nuclear or other attack it might be inclined to launch.

"We all understand that the best way of coping [with the Iranian nuclear threat] is through international sanctions]" Ashkenazi told an interviewer on IDF Army Radio. However, he added, "Israel has the right to defend itself, and all options are open."

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Israeli-Iranian Conflict

Israel Arms Seizure Caps Secret Operation

UPI
November 5, 2009

The Israeli navy's seizure of a ship carrying 300 tons of Iranian arms supposedly bound for Hezbollah capped an intelligence operation that tracked the shipment for 2,500 miles from Iran's Gulf port of Bandar Abbas. That's a key base of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which these days pretty much controls Hezbollah.

The timing of the seizure just before dawn Wednesday raised speculation that it was intended to deflect attention from a U.N. debate on alleged war crimes committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip in an offensive almost a year ago.

Those allegations were given immense international weight by a scathing U.N. report released Sept. 15.

With the intent to rebut the charges and justify its actions in Gaza, Israel has been waging a strident propaganda campaign claiming Iran arms Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas faction that controls Gaza with rockets capable of blasting Tel Aviv.

The seizure of the German-owned, Antiguan-flagged freighter Francop in international waters off Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean by naval commandos of the elite Flotilla 13 unit was the biggest haul Israel has made in its drive to cut off arms supplies to its enemies.

Israel's navy commander said the intercept occurred on a routine patrol, but all the signs are that it was the result of a complex intelligence operation.

According to various sources in Israel, Lebanon and Cyprus, the arms were shipped from Bandar Abbas Oct. 14 aboard the Iranian cargo ship Visea. It is owned by the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines Group.

The arms shipment was under surveillance from the moment it left Bandar Abbas in a complex intelligence operation involving Israel, the United States and several NATO members. The Visea sailed into the Arabian Sea and then north up the Red Sea to the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean. It docked at the Egyptian port of Damietta on Oct. 26.

Thirty-six olive green containers holding, by Israeli count, 3,000 107mm and 122mm Katyusha rockets, along with large quantities of armor-piercing artillery shells, hand grenades and Kalashnikov ammunition, were offloaded. The Israelis estimated that was enough to keep Hezbollah fighting for a month.

The containers remained at Damietta for a week until they were loaded onto the 8,622-ton Francop. From there, the Israelis say, the ship was due to go to Limassol, Cyprus, then to the Syrian port of Latakia from where the weapons would be delivered overland to Hezbollah.

The Israelis said cargo certificates proved the containers were bound for Syria, but they have not yet produced the documents.

Syria and Iran deny the Francop carried Iranian arms destined for Syria. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem even claimed the vessel was sailing in the opposite direction carrying "imported goods" from Syria to Iran.

The Israelis say the Francop's crew, along with the ship's owners, Gerd Bartels of Hamburg, did not know the freighter was carrying weapons. Most of the arms were hidden behind stacked bags of polyethylene labeled in English "NPC National Petrochemical Company" with a flame logo used by the company and Iran's Oil Ministry. Some of the containers were marked IRISL.

When the Israelis boarded the Francop Wednesday they found the arms very quickly, suggesting they knew exactly what they were looking for.

The Israelis clearly were alerted about the arms shipment even before it left Iran, indicating that they may have agents on the ground there or even inside Hezbollah.

Dozens of suspected Israeli agents have been rounded up in Lebanon over the last year, and it can be presumed that others may remain in place.

According to Ronen Bergman, an Israeli security expert and author of the 2008 book "The Secret War with Iran," Israeli intelligence "has been watching weapons deliveries to Hezbollah for some time now." However, he says the Israelis have not moved to stop them, probably to protect their clandestine sources.

Reported attacks on Iranian arms shipments destined for Hamas that were destroyed in air and naval attacks in the Red Sea region earlier this year remain shrouded in mystery.

Israel has made no official comment, but the raids are widely considered to have been the work of Israel's military.

This time the Israelis have gone public in a spectacular manner, possibly to counter the war crimes allegations by bolstering their claim that Iran supports terrorism and cannot be trusted to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Abbas 'Will Not Seek Re-Election'

BBC
November 5, 2009

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will not seek re-election in polls next year, reports suggest. Officials from the Palestine Liberation Organisation told journalists in the West Bank that Mr Abbas "insists on not running" in the 24 January election.

An aide to Mr Abbas said earlier a lack of progress in peace talks with Israel and failure to achieve reconciliation with Hamas could prompt such a move.

But another aide said PLO officials were trying to change Mr Abbas' mind. Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior adviser to Mr Abbas, told AFP news agency that the PLO's executive committee had rejected his decision and said it would still support him in the election.

Mr Abbas took over after Yasser Arafat died in 2004 and became Palestinian Authority president a year later.

But he has struggled to make headway towards a peace deal in negotiations with Israel, amid deadlock over the issue of Israeli settlements. He has also faced rivalry from the Hamas movement, which won legislative elections in January 2006 and controls Gaza.

Officials say they expect him to make a formal announcement later in the day.

In recent months Egypt has tried to broker a unity deal between Hamas and Fatah but its efforts have been unsuccessful so far. Mr Abbas had said he would call elections even if no unity deal was reached.

The four-year term of the Palestinian Legislative Council, or parliament, is due to expire in January 2010, at which time fresh elections must be held, according to the Palestinian constitution.

Mr Abbas' presidential term expired early this year.

MAHMOUD ABBAS
Born in Safed in British Mandate Palestine (now northern Israel) in 1935
Studied law in Egypt and gained doctorate in Moscow
A founder member, with Yasser Arafat, of Palestinian political faction Fatah
Held security role within the PLO in the early 1970s
Appointed head of the PLO's department for national and international relations in 1980
Widely regarded as an architect of the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords
In January 2005, elected president of the Palestinian Authority

Abbas to Stand Down as Palestinian President

Times Online
November 5, 2009

Mahmoud Abbas, the increasingly isolated president of the Palestinian National Authority, announced today that he would not stand for re-election in polls scheduled for January, further unravelling US hopes for reviving the long-stalled peace process.

The announcement, made as Mr Abbas’s political standing hit an all-time low, exposed the deep Palestinian frustration at the US Administration’s failure to halt construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

It was prompted in part by remarks made last weekend by Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, who semed to cave in to Israel’s refusal to halt the growth of Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

Mr Abbas, 74, who succeeded Yassir Arafat, told a meeting of the Palestine Liberation Organisation that he would not run, his aides said.

"President Abbas has said more than once that he does not want to be a candidate because of his feelings of great frustration about the American position on the peace process," Nabil Shaath, a senior Palestinian official, said. "The Americans have abandoned their obligations."

Mr Abbas, a moderate who turned his back on the Palestinian Intifada and favoured negotiations with Israel, has seen his credibility and popularity plummet in the five years since he took power after the death of Mr Arafat, a former guerrilla leader and founder of the main PLO movement Fatah.

In 2006, Fatah, which had dominated the PLO and the Palestinian Authority set up in the 1990s, suffered a stinging election defeat at the hands of its Islamist rival Hamas. Many Palestinians were tired of the corruption and cronyism of the Palestinian Authority and turned in protest to the Islamists, who reject talks with Israel.

However, the international community rejected Hamas’s right to rule because the movement is labelled a terrorist group by the West after 15 years of suicide bombings and rocket attacks, and it rejects Israel’s right to exist.

Attempts were made to form a unity government, but the friction between the two groups erupted into war in the summer of 2007, when Hamas fighters quickly routed the disorganised Fatah forces in the Gaza Strip.

It was crushing blow to Mr Abbas's rule, whose authority was confined to the West Bank. Palestinian Authority leaders called the rift the worst catastrophe to befall their people since Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza in 1967.

However, the rift did free Mr Abbas up to restart peace talks with Israel, which had rejected any negotiations with a government that included Hamas.

Mr Abbas forged a personal bond with Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister who in 2006 had succeeded Ariel Sharon. Despite Mr Olmert’s pledges, the construction of Jewish settlements continued apace during the period, further undermining Mr Abbas.

Hamas accused Mr Abbas of being an Israeli stooge, and said it had documentary evidence of the Palestinian Authority’s collaboration with Israel which it captured in Gaza. During the Gaza war earlier this year, the Islamists accused Fatah members in the blockaded territory of sending intelligence to Ramallah, which was relayed to Israel.

When Mr Olmert was forced to quit over corruption allegations, Mr Abbas's gamble on Israel collapsed with the election of the right-wing Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu, who had to be coaxed by the international community even to recognise the Palestinians’ right to a state. He rejected previous agreements by Israel and turned back the clock on negotiations.

The death blow for Mr Abbas came when the UN released a report into the Gaza war, which accused both Israel and Hamas of war crimes. Infuriated, Israel warned that an endorsement of the report would end any hopes of peace talks resuming.

Under US pressure, Mr Abbas delayed backing it, causing outrage among Palestinians who saw his move as a betrayal of their cause and of the 1,400 Palestinians who died in the month-long war.

Realising his mistake, Mr Abbas did an abrupt about-face and backed the report, but the damage was done: he was seen as weak and isolated. Last week, he announced that elections would be held in January, but Hamas rejected the call, saying his tenure – which technically expired a year ago, but was extended by his own decree – was unconstitutional.

When Mrs Clinton said during a weekend visit that Israel – which has refused to bow to US demands for a settlement freeze – was making “unprecedented” concessions, the Palestinians saw their main precondition for resuming talks collapse.

Mrs Clinton later tried to redress her mistake, saying Israel still had a long way to go, but for the ageing Mr Abbas the future must have looked bleaker than ever.

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Israel, the U.S. and the Arab World

Iran Police, Protesters Clash at U.S. Embassy Rally

Associated Press
November 4, 2009

Iranian security forces beat anti-government protesters with batons Wednesday on the sidelines of state-sanctioned rallies to mark the 30th anniversary of the U.S. Embassy takeover. The counter-demonstrations were the opposition's first major show of force on Tehran's streets in nearly two months.

The opposition sought to display unity and resolve after relentless crackdowns on their protests following the disputed June presidential election. Though the crowds were far smaller than during last summer's outrage, authorities were ready with the same sweeping measures: dispatching paramilitary units to key locations and disrupting mobile phones, text messaging and Internet access to frustrate protest organizers.

The contrasts in the latest protest wave were stark: people chanting "Death to America" outside the former U.S. Embassy while hundreds of opposition marchers in central Haft-e-Tir Square denounced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with cries of "Death to the Dictator."

Other opposition protesters marched silently and flashed the V-for-victory sign. Many wore green scarves or wristbands that symbolized the campaign of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, who claims Ahmadinejad stole the election from him through fraud. Mousavi and his allies, including former President Mohammad Khatami, appeared to encourage opposition protesters to return to the streets.



Witnesses told The Associated Press that security forces — mainly paramilitary units and militiamen from the elite Revolutionary Guard — swept through the hundreds of demonstrators at Haft-e-Tir Square, clubbing, kicking and slapping protesters. The witnesses spoke on condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisals from authorities.

Pro-reform Web sites said police fired into the air to try to clear the square — about half a mile from the annual anti-American gathering outside the former U.S. Embassy. The report could not immediately be independently verified.

The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported police also used tear gas to disperse protesters in other parts of the city. There was no independent information on injuries or arrests, but state-run Press TV said no one was hurt.

A leading opposition figure, Mahdi Karroubi, fell to the ground after being overcome by tear gas, according to a posting by his son Hossein on Karroubi's Web site. His supporters carried him into his car, which plainclothes government supporters attacked as it drove away, the account said.

Karroubi did not need medical attention, his son said.

Other witnesses — also speaking on condition of anonymity — said about 2,000 students at Tehran University faced off against security forces, but there were no immediate reports of violence.

In Washington, the White House called for an end to the violence against anti-government protesters in Iran. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Obama administration leaders are following reports of the unrest and "hope greatly that violence will not spread."

The opposition movement began as objection to Ahmadinejad's re-election, but it has expanded into a catchall movement for complaints that include the unlimited powers of the ruling clerics, Iran's sinking economy and its international isolation. Their tactics now appear to rely on pinpoint protest strikes to coincide with government-backed events, such as September's anti-Israel day.

The size and scope of Wednesday's protests were difficult to determine — possibly several thousand, according to witnesses. But the total is significantly smaller than the hundreds of thousands who streamed into the streets last summer during the worse domestic unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Some opposition groups reported demonstrations in other cities such as Shiraz and Isfahan.

Media restrictions now limit journalists to covering state media and government-approved events, such as the rally outside the former embassy.

Authorities appeared determined to avoid opposition rallies overshadowing the anniversary of the embassy takeover. They had warned protesters days in advance against attempts to disrupt or overshadow the annual gathering outside the former embassy, which was stormed by militants in 1979 in the turbulent months after the Islamic Revolution.

Fifty-two Americans were held hostage for 444 days in a crisis that began a three-decade diplomatic freeze between the two nations.

Security forces fanned out around Tehran at daybreak on Wednesday after opposition leaders refused to call off their appeals for counter demonstrations.

Volunteer militiamen linked to the Revolutionary Guard patrolled the streets on motorcycles — a familiar sight during the summer unrest. Hours after the clashes, police helicopters passed low over Tehran's rooftops.

Outside the former U.S. Embassy, thousands of people waved anti-American banners and signs praising the Islamic Revolution.

The main speaker, hard-line lawmaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, denounced the United States as the main enemy of Iran. He did not mention the talks with the West, including the United States, on Iran's nuclear program.

But he labeled opposition leaders as dangerous for the country, saying they claim to support the ideals of the Islamic Revolution but aid Iran's perceived enemies.

President Barack Obama noted the anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy and urged the two countries to move beyond the "path of sustained suspicion, mistrust and confrontation."

The hostage crisis "deeply affected the lives of courageous Americans who were unjustly held hostage, and we owe these Americans and their families our gratitude for their extraordinary service and sacrifice," Obama said in a statement.

Khamenei Rejects Talks If Outcome Fixed By U.S., Marks Embassy Hostage Anniversary

DEBKAfile Special Report
November 3, 2009

"We do not want any negotiation the result of which is predetermined by the United States," said Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the clearest rejection yet of the world powers' UN-brokered proposal for Iran to ship three-quarters of its enriched uranium overseas for reprocessing.

"Giving the U.S. a veto over the nuclear talks would be like a sheep and wolf relation, which the late imam (Khomeini) has said 'we do not want,"" he said.

To drive his anti-U.S. message home, the ayatollah spoke Tuesday, Nov. 3, the eve of the 30th anniversary of the U.S. embassy seizure by radical students on Nov. 4, 1979 shortly after Khomeini's Islamic revolution - pouring salt on a sensitive landmark in Iranian-US relations. The 53 Americans were held hostage 444 days before being freed on Jan. 1981, but relations were never restored.

President Barack Obama and his engagement policy were singled out by Khameini for a smack in the face when he said:

"Whenever the U.S offers a smile, it hides a dagger in his back."

The level of unrelenting anti-U.S. rhetoric heard from the all-powerful spiritual ruler was exceptional even in Iranian terms.

DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report that the all-powerful Ayatollah may have left a wafer-thin crack more divisive than constructive open for the negotiations begun in Geneva last month to continue. The United States must have no say in their outcome, he insisted in the hope of isolating the U.S. from its fellow negotiators, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany.

U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton said Tuesday:

"This is a pivotal moment for Iran. Acceptance fully of this proposal (overseas uranium enrichment) would be a good indication that Iran does not wish to be isolated and does wish to cooperate."

Monday, Nov. 2, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned that the six world powers negotiating with Iran would not tolerate delaying tactics.

"If the Iranian response is to stall, as it seems to be, we will not accept this," he told journalists in Paris.

U.N. Wants Swift Response from Iran on Fuel Proposal

Reuters
November 2, 2009

U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei on Monday urged Iran to respond quickly to his nuclear fuel proposal while warning the world against using force.

"I therefore urge Iran to be as forthcoming as possible in responding soon to my recent proposal based on the initiative of the United States, Russia and France which aimed to engage Iran in a series of measures that could build confidence and trust," ElBaradei told the U.N. General Assembly.

Such measures, he said, could lead to a substantive dialogue between Iran and the international community.

The IAEA proposal calls for Iran to transfer about 75 percent of its known 1.5 metric tons of low-enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment by the end of this year, then to France for conversion into fuel plates for a Tehran reactor that produces radio isotopes for cancer treatment.

Iran has not responded formally, though Western diplomats said Tehran has asked to be provided with fresh nuclear fuel before it considers sending its uranium stocks abroad. That demand, the diplomats said, is unacceptable.

Iran's U.N. Ambassador Mohammad Khazaee did not mention the fuel proposal in his speech to the 192-nation assembly, which was meeting to discuss the annual report of the Vienna-based U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Instead, Khazaee called Israel's presumed nuclear weapons program "the most serious threat to the regional as well as international peace and security." Israel has never confirmed or denied possessing nuclear weapons.

ELBARADEI: FORCE ONLY AS LAST RESORT

Iran rejects Western allegations it is secretly developing nuclear weapons and has ignored U.N. Security Council demands to suspend enrichment, saying its program aims to peacefully generate electricity.

ElBaradei also urged the Iranians to respond to outstanding IAEA questions about their past nuclear activities. Tehran says this demand is based on false Western accusations about alleged Iranian research into building an atomic warhead.

The IAEA director-general warned other countries not to "jump the gun" or be swayed by politics, urging them to allow the IAEA to conduct its inspections thoroughly and properly.

Apparently referring to intelligence mistakes made in pre-war Iraq, ElBaradei said:

"We need to assess the veracity of intelligence information."

"Force should never be used unless every other option has been exhausted, and only then within the bounds of international law ... All of these lessons are applicable today in the case of Iran," he added.

Former U.S. President George W. Bush accused Iraq of reviving its nuclear weapons program but this was later proven to be untrue and partially based on forged documents.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out using force to deal with Iran's nuclear program.

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