Showing posts with label Wikileaks Documents and the Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wikileaks Documents and the Middle East. Show all posts

January 4, 2011

Israel, the U.S. and the Arab World

Israel Preparing for ‘Large Scale War’: Cable

January 2, 2011

Agence France-Presse — Israel's army chief told a US Congress delegation in late 2009 he was preparing for a large war in the Middle East, probably against Hamas or Hezbollah, leaked US diplomatic cables showed on Sunday.
"I am preparing the Israeli army for a large scale war, since it is easier to scale down to a smaller operation than to do the opposite," Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi was quoted as saying in a cable from the US embassy in Tel Aviv.
The document, dated November 15, 2009, was quoted Sunday in Norwegian by Oslo-based daily Aftenposten, which said it had obtained WikiLeaks' entire cache of 251,187 leaked US embassy cables.
"The rocket threat against Israel is more serious than ever. That is why Israel is putting such emphasis on rocket defence," Ashkenazi told the US delegation led by Democrat Ike Skelton, the cable showed.
The army chief lamented that Iran has some 300 Shihab rockets that can reach Israel and stressed that the Jewish state would have only between 10 and 12 minutes warning in case of an attack.

However, it was Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon that posed the most acute threat, he cautioned.

According to the quoted cable, Hezbollah is thought to have more than 40,000 rockets, many of which are believed capable of reaching deep into Israel.

US officials meanwhile reportedly estimate the militant group has acquired an arsenal of around 50,000 rockets.

A 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel killed 1,200 Lebanese, many of them civilians, and 160 Israelis, most of them soldiers.

And in his comments made nearly a year after Israel on December 27, 2008 launched the deadly Gaza war, Ashkenazi said,
"Israel is on a collision course also with Hamas, which rules Gaza."

"Hamas will have the possibility to bombard Tel Aviv, with Israel's highest population concentration," he was quoted as saying.
The Gaza war -- a response to hundreds of rockets fired into the Jewish State -- killed some 1,400 mainly civilian Palestinians and 13 Israelis, 10 of them soldiers. It ended on January 18, 2009.

Israel had been harshly criticized for putting civilians at risk during fighting in the densely populated Gaza Strip.

However, in the cable leaked Sunday Ashkenazi is quoted saying Israel next time will not accept "any restrictions on warfare in populated areas," and insisted the army had never intentionally attacked civilian targets.

Iran

WikiLeaks: Iran Can Reach Israel in 12 Minutes

JTA
January 2, 2011

Iran has missiles that can reach Israel in 12 minutes, according to cables released by WikiLeaks.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi told a U.S. Congressional delegation in November 2009 that the Islamic Republic has over 300 missiles that can reach the Jewish state in up to 12 minutes, according to the cables released on Sunday.

He also reportedly told the lawmakers, led by Ike Skelton (D-Mo.),that he was preparing Israel's military for a major war against Hamas, saying that
"I'm preparing the Israeli army for a major war, since it is easier to scale down to a smaller operation than to do the opposite."
Ashkenazi told the delegation that the threat from Hamas and Hezbollah is more acute than the Iranian threat, due to their proximity to Israel. Iran funds both Hamas and Hezbollah. He predicted that the next big war for Israel would be either in Gaza or Lebanon.

He also said that Hezbollah has over 40,000 rockets capable of reaching all of Israel, and that Hamas could hit Tel Aviv.

Iran Invites World, Save U.S., to Tour Nuclear Sites

Associated Press
January 4, 2011

The Tehran government confirmed on Tuesday that it has invited world powers and its allies in the Arab and developing world - but apparently not chief critic the United States - to tour Iranian nuclear sites before a high-profile meeting late January on its disputed nuclear program.

The Associated Press reported the invitation to tour the facilities on Monday, citing a letter from a senior Iranian envoy that suggested the visit take place the weekend of Jan. 15 and 16.

A diplomat familiar with the invitation said the U.S. - the greatest critic of Iran's nuclear ambitions - and the other Western powers in the group were not invited, in an apparent attempt to split the six powers ahead of planned talks on Iran's nuclear program later this month.

An Iranian official speaking on condition of anonymity from a European capital said facilities to be visited include the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz and the Arak site where Tehran is building a plutonium-producing heavy water reactor.

Both facilities are considered suspect by the West because they could be used to make the fissile core of nuclear warheads; Tehran's refusal to shut them down has triggered U.N. Security Council sanctions.

On Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast confirmed the offer, saying it went to "the E.U, the non-aligned movement and representatives from 5+1 countries."

The "5+1" countries are the six world powers negotiationing with Iran over its nuclear program: the five permanent U.N. Security Council members - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China - plus Germany.

Mehmanparast said Iran would identify the invited countries at a later time, adding that the invitation was a sign of Iran's "good will" and greater transparency about its nuclear program. Iran insists its nuclear program is designed to generate power, but the West suspects that's just a cover to build bombs.

Mehmanparast did not give a firm date, but said the tour would take place before the January talks.

The new round of negotiations is meant to explore whether there is common ground for more substantive talks on Iran's nuclear program. A round of talks in Geneva in December yielded no breakthrough.

The U.N. Security Council has demanded that Iran freeze uranium enrichment - a process that can produce both fuel and fissile warhead material. But Iranian negotiators flatly ruled out discussing such demands at the Istanbul meeting, Western diplomats familiar with the talks said.

The offer of a visit comes more than three years after six diplomats from developing nations visited Iran's uranium ore conversion site at Isfahan, which turns raw uranium into the gas that is then fed into enriching centrifuges. Participating diplomats told reporters they could not assess Iran's nuclear aims based on what they saw there.

The new offer appeared more wide ranging, both in terms of who was invited and sites to be visited.

Dated Dec. 27, the four-paragraph letter offered no details beyond offering an all-expenses paid "visit to Iran's nuclear sites."

But a diplomat familiar with its contents said it was mailed to Russia, China, Egypt, the group of nonaligned nations at the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency, Cuba, Arab League members at the IAEA, and Hungary, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency. He spoke on condition of anonymity because his information was privileged.

China, and to a lesser degree Russia, have acted to dilute harsh sanctions proposed by the U.S. and its Western allies on the Security Council, leading to compromise penalties enacted by the council that are milder than the West had originally hoped.

The outreach to Moscow and Beijing in Tehran's offer to visit appeared to be an attempt to leverage any differences between the Eastern and Western powers meeting the Iranians in Istanbul.

On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei acknowledged that Beijing has received an invitation and hopes the dispute over Iran's nuclear program would be resolved through dialogue.

The Foreign Ministry of Hungary also confirmed receiving the Iranian letter and said it is discussing the offer with other EU member nations and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Iran 'Shoots Down Western Spy Drones' in Gulf

BBC News
January 2, 2011

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have shot down two "Western spy drones" in the Gulf, a senior Iranian commander has been quoted as saying.

"Many" other drones have been shot down over an unspecified period of time, the Fars news agency quoted him as saying.

The head of the Revolutionary Guards' air force wing, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, produced no evidence to support the report.

He said this was the first time news of the incidents had been reported.

The drones were mainly being used in Iraq and Afghanistan but "some violations against our soil" had also occurred, the commander said.

The Revolutionary Guards were set up following the Islamic revolution in 1979, and its commanders have frequently delivered warnings to Israel.

Last August Iran unveiled what it said was its first domestically built drone, the Karrar.

It said it had a range of 1,000km (620 miles) and could carry two 250-pound (115kg) bombs, or a precision bomb of 500 pounds.

There is no independent corroboration of the latest Iranian claims.

The Fifth Fleet of the US navy is based in Bahrain, on the other side of the Gulf from Iran.

Iranian commanders have threatened to block shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked.

December 27, 2010

Iran

Iran: Why Containment Is Bad Strategy

By Rick Francona, Middle East Perspectives
December 3, 2010

Many analysts believe that the Obama Administration has resigned itself to the inevitability of a nuclear armed Iran. You can understand that argument if you look at the Administration's continuing attempts to "engage" the Iranians when the regime in Tehran has made it abundantly clear by its actions that it has no interest in meaningful and sincere dialogue with the West over its nuclear program.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has hailed as "encouraging" the fact that after months of stalling, the Iranians have agreed to resume talks. Why she thinks this is encouraging is beyond me. The Iranians have consistently outmaneuvered Clinton on foreign policy since she has been Secretary of State. While she has been focused on these fruitless talks, the Iranians have been focused on buying time for the continued enrichment of uranium. The Iranians have used the Secretary's misguided belief that she could convince the regime in Tehran into working with the West as a virtual time machine allowing its scientists more time to not only acquire weapons grade fissile material but to refine weapons designs.

What exactly has Iran agreed to that Mrs. Clinton finds encouraging? It took over a month just to reach an agreement on a date and a venue. There still is no agenda. The Iranians have stated that they will not discuss their nuclear program, which is the only reason to have the talks in the first place.

The talks are pure theater. No one expects any results other than providing the Iranians the fig leaf that they are cooperating with the West. The West gets to advance the fiction that it is addressing a potential Iranian nuclear threat. Meanwhile, Iran continues on its path to becoming a nuclear armed nation. President Obama and Secretary Clinton seem okay with that, figuring that the United States was able to live with a nuclear Soviet Union for decades, therefore, we should be able to contain an Iran that possesses nuclear weapons.

Containment is not a viable option. Here's why.

There is much more at stake than the bilateral relationship between the United States and Iran. Everyone is aware that the Israelis view a nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat to the Jewish state. They have been planning a strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities for years, even acquiring American-made GBU-28 "bunker buster" munitions required to destroy the hardened Iranian targets. If the Iranians get close to the possession of nuclear weapons, Israel will feel compelled to mount a military operation to destroy the production facilities. It simply cannot risk an attack that might virtually eradicate Israel.

An Israeli strike on Iran might ignite a conflagration that will draw in all countries in the region. Iran and Syria have a mutual defense treaty; Damascus possesses missiles that can strike anywhere in Israel, and is known to possess chemical warheads for those missiles.

Both Iran and Syria have influence over the Lebanese terrorist organization Hizballah, which can strike targets in northern Israel as far south as Tel Aviv. Iran also wields considerable influence over the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Hamas could open up a southern front against Israel.

In addition to the danger of an armed confrontation in the region, Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons will catalyze an arms race in the region. Thanks to leaked State Department cables, we have this on good authority.

From a Secret Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals cable sent by the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia (Riyadh 000178, February 2010):
9. (S/NF) COUNTERING IRAN: The King told General Jones that if Iran succeeded in developing nuclear weapons, everyone in the region would do the same, including Saudi Arabia.
From a Confidential cable sent by the American Embassy in Eygpt (Cairo 001067, May 2008):
3. (C) Asked about Egypt's reaction if Iran developed nuclear weapons capability, Mubarak said that none will accept a nuclear Iran, "we are all terrified." Mubarak said that when he spoke with former Iranian President Khatami he told him to tell current President Ahmedinejad "not to provoke the Americans" on the nuclear issue so that the U.S. is not forced to strike. Mubarak said that Egypt might be forced to begin its own nuclear weapons program if Iran succeeds in those efforts.
The best course of action is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Thus far, nothing has been successful at convincing the Iranians to abandon that effort. Sanctions have not worked in the past and likely won't in the future. Time is running out. At some point in the near future, difficult decisions are going to have to be made.

While Mrs. Clinton might find the current situation encouraging, I do not.

Wikileaks Documents Show Iran a Major Concern

By Rick Francona, Middle East Perspectives
November 30, 2010

Secret State Department cable released by Wikileaks

I am appalled by the release of hundreds of thousands of classified U.S. military and diplomatic cables by the Wikileaks organization. While Julian Assange's organization may not technically be breaking the law, it does major damage to our ability to prosecute two wars and conduct foreign policy around the world.

The real culprit appears to be Army Private First Class Bradley Manning, a 22-year old intelligence analyst who has no clue what harm he has done. He, of course, has violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice and will be court-martialed.

Manning is currently in custody in Quantico, Virginia, where he is being held in solitary confinement, probably for his own safety. He has initially been charged with "transferring classified data onto his personal computer and adding unauthorized software to a classified computer system" and "communicating, transmitting and delivering national defense information to an unauthorized source." The maximum sentence for those two offenses is 52 years.

I suspect that if the leaks can be tied to the arrest, imprisonment, mistreatment or death of an American information source, Manning will be tried for additional, more serious violations. Personally, I hope he is found guilty of treason in a time of war, a capital offense. At the very least, he should spend the rest of his days bolted into a concrete box. Thankfully, given Attorney General Eric Holder's track record on prosecutions, this will be tried in a military court where the chances of a conviction are good.

That said, the recent tranche of diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks shows the depth of concern among many of our regional allies over Iran. Iran is now regarded as the world's major state sponsor of terrorism and the biggest threat to regional stability in the volatile Persian Gulf.

I'll forgo Israeli concerns over Iran. These concerns have been well-documented already since Israel has made no secret that it regards a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. Many of the Tel Aviv cables in the released documents again point this out, including requests for GBU-28 5000-pound "bunker buster" bombs. These munitions will be required if Israel plans to attack Iran's hardened nuclear facilities.

Second to Israel, the country that most regards Iran as a major threat is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Many of the released cables deal with Saudi Arabia's concerns over Iran's nuclear program as well as its influence in neighboring Iraq. A cable written in February of this year setting the scene for a visit by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is telling. Some excerpts:
- "King 'Abdullah believes we are not always reliable, consistent, or willing to heed his advice on important issues such as Iraq. Sa'ud Al-Faisal and others have openly been critical of U.S. policies they describe as having shifted the regional balance of power in favor of arch-rival Iran."

- "Saudi Arabia is thinking through how best to take a leaf from the Chinese playbook and use these expanded trade ties to achieve important political goals. In this regard, Saudi Arabia has told the Chinese that it is willing to effectively trade a guaranteed oil supply in return for Chinese pressure on Iran not to develop nuclear weapons."

- "We expect that Saudi Arabia will continue to develop its ties with China, in part to counterbalance relations with the West. While the King's preference is to cooperate with the U.S., he has concluded that he needs to proceed with his own strategy to counter Iranian influence in the region, which includes rebuilding Riyadh-Cairo-Damascus coordination, supporting Palestinian reconciliation, supporting the Yemeni government, and expanding relations with non-traditional partners such as Russia, China, and India to create diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran that do not directly depend on U.S. help.

- "The King told General Jones that if Iran succeeded in developing nuclear weapons, everyone in the region would do the same, including Saudi Arabia."

- "The King is convinced that current U.S. engagement efforts with Tehran will not succeed; he is likely to feel grimly vindicated in his view by Ahmadinejad's February 11 boast that having successfully enriched uranium to a level of 20 percent, Iran 'is now a nuclear nation.' The King told General Jones that Iranian internal turmoil presented an opportunity to weaken the regime -- which he encouraged -- but he also urged that this be done covertly and stressed that public statements in support of the reformers were counterproductive. The King assesses that sanctions could help weaken the government, but only if they are strong and sustained. The King will want you to elaborate on the President's statement that the time for sanctions has come. He will also want to hear our plans for bolstering Gulf defenses vis a vis Iran."
Another secret cable from the U.S. embassy in Riyadh quotes the Saudi ambassador to the United States 'Adil al-Jubayr citing the Saudi king's "frequent exhortations to the US to attack Iran and so put an end to its nuclear weapons program.
"He told you to cut off the head of the snake."
After the cables were made public, Mrs. Clinton remarked,
"I think that it should not be a surprise that Iran is a source of great concern, not only in the U.S. The comments reported in the cables prove that Iran poses a serious threat in the eyes of its neighbors, and beyond the region."
She missed the point that most of the comments are not supportive of President Obama's lenient engagement policy toward Iran.

In a somewhat surprising and no doubt embarrassing revelation, Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad al-Hariri was quoted in a cable that he supported military strikes on Iran's nuclear program. Of course, things have changed and he denies ever saying it. Egyptian President Husni Mubarak also was quoted disparaging Iran.

President Obama is allegedly a big proponent of "transparency." One of his first executive orders when he took office in 2009 dealt with the classification system and his desire that only things absolutely requiring secrecy be restricted from the public. I wonder what he thinks now that less than one-tenth of one percent of the over 250,000 documents to be released have come to light.

More importantly, these documents clearly show that most of our allies in the region are wary of Iran and are skeptical of the President's attempts (which all have failed) to engage the Iranians diplomatically. As the Saudis point out, he doesn't listen.

December 21, 2010

Iran

The WikiLeaks Documents and the Middle East

By Uzi Rabi, Tel Aviv University
December 21, 2010

American diplomatic accounts of conversations with various Arab leaders released this past week by WikiLeaks, draw a stark outline of the new geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Many regional and international leaders, the documents show, are not focused primarily on Israel’s traditional struggle with the Arab states and the Palestinians. Rather, their more immediate and acute concerns are with the prospect of a nuclear Iran, creating tensions between the moderate Arab camp (the Arab Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan) and other Middle Eastern actors (Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas, and to some extent, Turkey).

The WikiLeaks documents call attention to a yawning rift that has opened up between the Arab states adjacent to the Persian Gulf and Iran. Arab leaders are concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, and their opinions of the Shi'i state and its president, as cited by American diplomats and officials, reveal suspicion and animosity reinforced by deeply rooted religious (Sunni vs. Shi'i) and ethnic (Arab vs. Persian) divisions.

Gulf leaders are quoted as urging the United States to attack Iran as quickly as possible. Saudi King Abdullah was particularly graphic, calling on Washington to “cut the head off of the snake.” Economic sanctions were preferable, he said, but “the use of military pressure against Iran should not be ruled out.”

Two years ago, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal went as far as proposing an Arab-led military force to destroy Hizbullah in order to prevent an "Iranian takeover of Lebanon." In December 2005, United Arab Emirates Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayid told U.S. CENTCOM head, General John Abizaid, that the Iranians had to be “dealt with before they do something tragic.” UAE military leaders were quoted as agreeing with the Americans that “President Ahmadinejad seemed unbalanced, crazy even.” Crown Prince bin Zayid called Ahmadinejad “Hitler” and pressed for an Israeli attack against Iran.

Earlier this year international media sources revealed that Israel and Saudi Arabia had engaged in secret talks, in which Saudi Arabia implied that it would turn a blind eye if Israel were to use the Saudi desert as a fly-over corridor to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Barring such an attack, nuclear Iran would become a regional superpower able to pressure Gulf states to line up behind it; it could serve as a source of inspiration and support for radical groups in the Gulf states and beyond; and a regional nuclear arms race would likely ensue.

In response, Iran released a statement dismissing the documents as U.S. propaganda, and claimed that relations with its Gulf neighbors will not be affected. However, this seems unlikely: The WikiLeaks disclosures have widened the deep-rooted divisions between the Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain (the Upper Gulf states), and Iran, which does not bode well for Arab-Iranian and Sunni-Shi'i relations in the coming year.

The WikiLeaks documents also shed light on the ongoing military and diplomatic cooperation between Iran and Turkey, suggesting the beginnings of a new axis in the region. The documents do note that while Turkey is drawing nearer to the Muslim Middle East, this does not necessarily imply an end to its relationship with the United States. Nonetheless, the strains between Ankara and Washington reverberate throughout the documents and beyond.

For example, one document states that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan holds eight private bank accounts in Switzerland. He vehemently denied the claim and accused the American diplomat who wrote it of slander; Turkey quickly accused the US of deliberately leaking them and, like Iran, dismissed their publication as American propaganda. The deputy leader of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), Huseyin Celik, went as far as accusing Israel of engineering the leak in order to weaken the Turkish government. Still, Erdogan's political enemies are making the most of the revelations, and his attempts to delegitimize the documents may well be motivated by personal considerations.

While Israel has possessed a nuclear capability for over 40 years, WikiLeaks documents show that it is Iran’s nuclear ambitions that currently worry Arab states: for them, the prospect of two Middle Eastern nuclear powers in confrontation with one another is positively frightening. Still, Israel's nuclear capability is hardly comforting to Arab states. Egypt, for example, has for 15 years spearheaded an effort to make the Middle East a nuclear weapons-free zone.

The final document of the 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference included mention of an Egyptian-tendered plan to convene a regional summit in 2012 to discuss the possibility of implementing a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. The likely success of this initiative was undermined from the beginning by the fact that it targets Israel, calling for it to join the NPT as soon as possible and to open its nuclear facilities to international inspection.
Egyptian president Husni Mubarak stated that “the Middle East does not need any nuclear powers, be they Iran or Israel­ what we need is peace, security, stability and development."
For Israel, the documents­ which refer to Mossad Chief Meir Dagan's encouraging the US to organize a coup in Iran ­are embarrassing, but not necessarily damaging. There are relatively few references to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the documents, and the issue has taken a back seat to nuclear Iran in recent Arab-American diplomatic discussions.

The Arab states' deep fear of Iran's regional ambitions, which are a source of inspiration to its clients, Hamas and Hizbullah, outweighs their concern with the intractable, but not immediately threatening Israel-Palestine issue. Nonetheless, although the Israeli-Palestinian issue is on the diplomatic backburner, we should not expect Arab leaders to cease pointing to Israel as the culprit responsible for the failure to achieve an Arab-Israeli peace. Moreover, they insist on the existence of linkage­, i.e., that successful pressure on Israel in order to achieve a peace agreement will strengthen them in their efforts to combat Iran's bid for regional hegemony.

Israel should not grow complacent because of the relatively positive light in which it is portrayed in the American diplomatic documents. Rather, it should take a close look at the documents' revelations concerning the changing geostrategic calculations in the region and seek to forge alliance s­even partial or tacit ones­ based on common vital strategic interests.

In reading between the lines of their conversations with American diplomats, Arab leaders seem to view the Obama administration's insistent focus on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as coming at the expense of blocking Iran's rising power. Together with what they view as Administration impotence in affecting a change in Israeli policies, Arab states essentially confer a grade of "Poor" on Washington's overall performance in the Middle East. The dwindling confidence in US leadership on the part of America's traditional Arab allies may eventually lead to the emergence of new constellations of power in the region.

More generally, the WikiLeaks episode is likely to damage the conduct of diplomacy in the Middle East, as diplomats are apt to be much less candid with one another for fear of further leaks. A short-term side effect could be the hindrance of multi-national efforts within the Middle East and beyond in dealing with problems like counter-terrorism and money laundering, because the documents have exposed channels of cooperation between intelligence agencies, which will be difficult to recreate. Overall, whereas the WikiLeaks documents reveal very little that was not already known, they depict the Middle East as a region at a strategic and diplomatic crossroads.

Iran Challenges Britain, Provokes USA to Military Action

By Ivan Tulyakov, Pravda.Ru
December 21, 2010

British envoy to Teheran Simon Gass probably decided to break the principle "better a bad piece than a good quarrel." Gass's harsh statements triggered a serious diplomatic scandal. The Iranian parliament immediately decided to terminate diplomatic ties with London, although there is a chance that the situation may change for the better.

The rupture of diplomatic relations between two countries usually occurs when the two sides either approach the verge of a military conflict or have already started it. Usually, diplomats stick to the principle of having a bad piece than a good quarrel.

The relations between Iran and Britain have been highly tense because of the Iranian nuclear program. The attempts against the lives of Iranian nuclear physicists, which took place in Iran on November 29, aggravated the confrontation between the two countries even more. Iranian officials accused Western special services, particularly Britain's MI-6, of masterminding the killing of nuclear physicist Majid Shahriari and injuring laser physicist Professor Fereydoun Abbasi.

The patience of Iranian politicians was exhausted after British envoy to Teheran Simon Gass published a critical opinion on December 9 on the website of the British embassy about the situation with human rights in Iran. The British official accused the Iranian authorities of depriving the nation of fundamental freedoms and paid attention to numerous arrests of journalists and human rights activists.
"Nowhere are they under greater threat than in Iran," Gass said. According to Gass, Britain and Iran differ greatly in their human rights concepts.
Teheran showed an immediate reaction to the article. An action of protest was held on Sunday near the building of the British embassy; a number of Iranian parliamentarians demanded Gass be expelled from the country and the ties with Britain be terminated. Iranian officials directly accused Britain of interfering into internal affairs of the Islamic Republic. Mohammad Karami-Rad, a member of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said that London's "hostile acts" toward the Islamic republic were cause for concern.
"Members of the commission brought up very important and serious issues regarding a single-urgency motion to sever ties with Britain," he said.
Karami-Rad also said that the committee for security and foreign politics decided to entirely terminate ties with London in spite of the fact that some MPs insisted on restricting the level of cooperation with Britain.

The committee's decision testifies to the fact that Teheran is confronting London deliberately. Iran will be ready to go even further if the West continues to take a critical position about the Iranian nuclear program.

In the meantime, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, stated in Bahrain that the States was prepared to respond to any threat from the Islamic Republic.
According to the Associated Press, Adm. Mullen's statement that "we're very ready" to counter the Iranian regime threat was "an unusually direct acknowledgment that the United States has contingency plans to counter Iran should it make a move."

"From my perspective I see Iran continuing on this path to develop nuclear weapons, and I believe that that development and achieving that goal would be very destabilizing to the region," Mullen added.
WikiLeaks said not so long ago that several Arab states, allies of the United States, asked the USA to strike a preventive blow on Iran. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain were especially persistent in their request. Speaking about a possible blow on Iran, Mullen said that such a step would lead to unforeseen consequences in the Middle East. At the same time, the US high-ranking official added, Washington was strongly against Iran's development of nuclear weapons and it would do everything possible to prevent it.

December 20, 2010

North Korea

Air Force Global Strike Command SPECIAL ALERT

By Canadafirst, ScarletWhore.com
December 19, 2010

UN Security Council to meet amid Korean tensions:
The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said Saturday that the U.N. Security Council will meet Sunday at 1600 GMT on the soaring tensions on the Korean Peninsula, news reports said. Early Saturday, Russia, a permanent council member, requested an emergency meeting which, according to U.S. sources, might have been held as soon Saturday afternoon, AFP said.

All active personnel serving with the Air Force Global Strike Command have been issued a special alert on Dec 18. Air Force Global Strike Command is responsible for deploying Long Range Strategic Bombers including B-52 and B-2 bombers. There are believed to be 30 B-52 and 11 B-2 bombers stationed at Anderson Air Force base on the Island of Guam. The USAF 36th Wing would be used as the main bomber force in advent of a war on the Korean Peninsula. The Amateur radio operator affiliation known as Sky Watchers has been reporting a substantial increase in Air Traffic at Anderson Air Force base since Dec 15. Strategic bombers deployed from Guam would rendezvous with Fighters from the 5th Air Force stationed in Japan before entering a combat area such as North Korea.

The last confirmed deployment of Stealth Aircraft to Guam was in 2009. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/08/205_40484.html

The mission of Air Force Global Strike Command is to “Develop and provide combat-ready forces for nuclear deterrence and global strike operations –Safe –Secure –Credible to support the President of the United States and combatant commanders.

Western Forces Buildup for Korean Attack

By Canadafirst, ScarletWhore.com
December 18, 2010

Four Multi-role Frigates and two air defense destroyers from Canada will meet up with an undisclosed contingent of Royal Navy and Royal Australian Navy vessels for what is assumed to be preparations for action on the Korean Peninsula. The UK, Canada and Australia have some 90 Fast-Attack aircraft that can be deployed with 24 hours to the Korean Theater. The Canadian and Australian Airforces operate the F18s while the UK deploys the Tornado. Allied forces could double the available Naval power in the theater by the end of the year with over 1000 Front-line Allied Aircraft deployed by South Korea, the U.S. and other allies. The sheer volume of Western Forces in the Region signals an inevitable war. Not in the last 55 years has their been such a large Western Military Build-up in the Korean peninsula.

The last confirmed deployment of Stealth Aircraft to Guam was in 2009. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/08/205_40484.html

The mission of Air Force Global Strike Command is to “Develop and provide combat-ready forces for nuclear deterrence and global strike operations –Safe –Secure –Credible to support the President of the United States and combatant commanders.



North Korea Backs Away from Threat to Attack South

Associated Press
December 20, 2010

North Korea backed off threats to retaliate against South Korea for military drills Monday and reportedly offered concessions on its nuclear program — signs it was looking to lower the temperature on the Korean peninsula after weeks of soaring tensions.

But Pyongyang has feinted toward conciliation before and failed to follow through.

The North's gestures came after South Korea launched fighter jets, evacuated hundreds of residents near its tense land border with the North and sent residents of islands near disputed waters into underground bunkers in case Pyongyang followed through on its vow to attack over the drills.
"It appears that deterrence has been restored," said Daniel Pinkston, Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group think tank. "The North Koreans only understand force or show of force."
It's not the first time that the North has taken the international community down this road. The North has previously been accused of using a mix of aggression and conciliatory gestures to force international negotiations that usually net it much-needed aid. Real progress, meanwhile, on efforts to rid the North of its nuclear weapons programs has been rare.

Monday's drills came nearly a month after the North shelled Yeonpyeong Island, a tiny enclave of fishing communities and military bases about seven miles (11 kilometers) from North Korean shores, in response to an earlier round of South Korean live-fire maneuvers. The North Korean artillery barrage killed two marines and two construction workers in its first attack targeting civilian areas since the 1950-53 Korean War. That clash sent tensions soaring between the two countries — which are still technically at war.

They've remained in a tense standoff since the Nov. 23 attack, and an emergency meeting of U.N. diplomats in New York on Sunday failed to find any solution to the crisis.

But Monday brought some of the first positive signs in weeks, as a high-profile American governor announced what he said were two nuclear concessions from the North.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a frequent unofficial envoy to North Korea and former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said that during his visit the North agreed to let U.N. atomic inspectors visit its main nuclear complex to make sure it's not producing enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb, according to a statement from his office.

The North expelled U.N. inspectors last year, and last month showed a visiting American scientist a new, highly advanced uranium enrichment facility that could give it a second way to make atomic bombs, in addition to its plutonium program. Richardson also said that Pyongyang was willing to sell fresh fuel rods, potentially to South Korea.
"We had positive results," Richardson told Associated Press Television News at the Pyongyang airport on Monday night.
He had been set to brief reporters in Beijing, but his flight was canceled.
"This is the way countries are supposed to act," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said. "The South Korean exercise was defensive in nature. The North Koreans were notified in advance. There was no basis for a belligerent response."
Analyst Baek Seung-joo cautioned that the North's reported concessions are only a tactic aimed at easing international pressure. Baek, of the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul, said the comments would be significant if the North made them officially, rather than through Richardson.

The North was only sounding out U.S. and South Korean intentions by talking to Richardson, Baek said, and if the situation doesn't turn in the North's favor, it will back away.

Pyongyang is believed to be seeking one-on-one talks with the United States before returning to stalled nuclear disarmament negotiations hosted by China. The United States, however, has indicated that a resumption of those talks, without meaningful movement on past nuclear commitments from the North, could be seen as tantamount to rewarding North Korea for behaving badly.

China, on the other hand, has urged a resumption of the talks, and over the weekend, diplomats said it successfully prevented the U.N. Security Council from issuing a statement condemning the North's shelling — as the U.S. and others had wanted.

Beijing is the North's most important ally and has come under pressure to leverage its influence to rein in the North in the wake of the attack. On Monday, a Chinese spokeswoman called again for "maximum restraint" on all sides — just as the North announced it wouldn't retaliate.

Beijing, which provides crucial food and fuel aid to Pyongyang, is wary of pressuring the North in a way that could destabilize it, fearing in part the collapse of the government and a flood of refugees across the border into northeastern China.

It was unclear if Chinese pressure persuaded North Korea not to react to Monday's drills.

Richardson, in fact, appeared to suggest that his visit contributed to the North's backing down.
"During my meetings in Pyongyang, I repeatedly pressed North Korea not to retaliate. The result is that South Korea was able to flex its muscles, and North Korea reacted in a statesmanlike manner," Richardson said in a statement. "I hope this will signal a new chapter and a round of dialogue to lessen tension on the Korean peninsula."
North Korea called Monday's drills a "reckless military provocation" but said after they ended that it was holding its fire because Seoul had changed its firing zones.

The official Korean Central News Agency carried a military statement that suggested that the North viewed Monday's drills differently from the ones that provoked it last month because South Korean shells landed farther south of the North's shores.

The North claims the waters around Yeonpyeong as its territory, and during last month's artillery exchange, the North accused the South of firing artillery into its waters; the South said it fired shells southward, not toward the North.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said its artillery Monday was fired in the same direction — toward waters southwest of the island, not toward the North — just as during last month's maneuvers.
"North Korea appeared to have issued this statement because it was afraid" of a full-blown war with South Korea, a Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said on condition of anonymity citing department rules.
In Washington, the Pentagon called the drills routine. There was nothing "provocative, unusual or threatening about them," said U.S. defense spokesman Lt. Col. Mark Ballesteros.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak ordered preparations to cope with any possible attack by North Korea, even after the drills ended.

Several bloody naval skirmishes have occurred along the Koreas' disputed western sea border in recent years. The North does not recognize the U.N.-drawn sea border in the area.

December 4, 2010

Iran

Iran Rules Out Halting Nuclear Enrichment

The Wall Street Journal
December 4, 2020

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Saturday dampened the possibility for a breakthrough in next week's scheduled international talks over Tehran's nuclear program, blaming Washington for pursuing a confrontational policy towards his country instead of genuine diplomacy.

Mr. Mottaki—speaking at a regional security conference here a day after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington remained committed to negotiations with Tehran—said that his government wouldn't back down from its policy of enriching nuclear fuel on its own territory.

That sets up a diplomatic showdown in Geneva for the talks, set to start Monday, which U.S. officials see as another step in President Barack Obama's policy of diplomatic outreach to the Islamic Republic. The U.S. and others believe that Iran is attempting to build a nuclear weapon, while Iran says it wants nuclear power for civilian purposes.

In recent days, U.S. officials have expressed confidence that a strengthened international economics-sanctions regime, put into place earlier this year, has helped to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

Mr. Mottaki countered that view, saying that sanctions haven't resulted in material hardship for his nation, nor have they isolated Tehran from the international community. He said his government is participating in next week's talks because of its long-standing commitment to international cooperation on its nuclear program.
"Sanctions have had no affect on us," he said.
The Iranian official expressed distrust for America and the U.S.-led efforts to slow down Iran's nuclear ambitions. He said that his government isn't impressed with America's outreach toward Tehran and called Mr. Obama's stated policy of constructive engagement with Iran a farce.

"We are of the analysis that what [the Americans] say and what their policies are (show) they are suffering from a paradox," he said, citing as evidence a lack of practical change on U.S. policies on Middle East peace efforts, compared to those of former President George W. Bush.

Mr. Mottaki also struck a defiant tone about Iran's relations with its neighbors in the Middle East, many of whom have said in public and private discussions—several of which were leaked in cables released recently by WikiLeaks—that they fear the Shiite country's growing political influence in the region.

Speaking at a session of the conference attended by Arab foreign ministers and other high-ranking officials, Mr. Mottaki said that the Muslim world had nothing to fear from Iran's nuclear potential, and said that his government viewed the scientific achievement of nuclear power as a benefit for the entire Muslim world.
"The reality is that Iran has more or less the same potential of other countries to become very powerful, but we will not use that potential to hurt our neighbors…especially because our neighbors are Muslims. Our power is your power, and your power is ours," he told the gathering.
In the past few years, the oil-producing nations of the Persian Gulf have spent billions of dollars upgrading their own military capabilities with an eye on what many rulers see as a critical threat from Tehran.

Bahrain's foreign minister, Sheikh Khalid al-Khalifa, speaking at a session with Mr. Mottaki and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davitoglu, repeated a proposal made by international diplomats and Arab nations to create an international nuclear fuel bank, through which Iran could power its budding nuclear industry under strict controls.

Mr. Mottaki said that Iran would welcome the creation of such a fuel bank, but would not give up what he said was Iran's sovereign right to enrich its own uranium.
"We are [in] agreement in creation of a fuel bank, and since we are a fuel producer and we have the technology for that, then presumably a branch of the bank will be built in Iran," Mr. Mottaki said.

August 20, 2010

Majority of Americans Support Iran Attack

Corporate Media Poll Claims Majority of Americans Support Iran Attack

By Kurt Nimmo, Infowars.com
August 22, 2010

According to a Rasmussen poll posted last week, most Americans consider Iran an enemy of the United States, believe Iran’s nuclear program is developing weapons, and they would support the United States helping Israel attack the Islamic country.

57% say Iran is an enemy. 66% say Iran’s uranium enrichment program is developing nuclear weapons (53% state an Iranian nuke is very likely). 51% say if Israel attacks Iran, the United States should lend a helping hand.

Is it possible these numbers are correct? Should we trust Rasmussen and other corporate media polling operations?

If you doubt the numbers, consider the overwhelming support for the attack on Iraq. Before the invasion in March 2003 polls showed 47-60% of the U.S. public supported an invasion. A Gallup poll conducted after Bush made his neocon fabricated case against Iraq showed that an astounding 67% believed the neocon generated propaganda and outright lies. Following Colin Powell’s dog and pony show at the United Nations claiming Iraq had biological weapons, only 27% opposed military action. Most Americans actually believed Saddam Hussein posed a direct threat to the United States.

The invasion launched by Bush’s daddy enjoyed even larger support. 79% of polled Americans were in favor at the beginning of the Persian Gulf War, more accurately described as the Persian Gulf Turkey Shoot. The numbers during Bush Junior’s invasion may be somewhat smaller because opposing information was available on the internet. The web did not exist in 1990.

(See Popular opinion in the United States on the invasion of Iraq.)

As Scott Horton pointed out on RT, there is absolutely no evidence Iran is manufacturing nuclear weapons and in fact does not have the capability to do so.

So, if we are to believe Rasmussen, why do Americans believe otherwise? Because millions of them get their news from the corporate media — and the corporate media is the lick-spittle handmaiden of the military-industrial complex and the global elite that have a vested interest in back-to-back wars of the sort we have endured since the establishment of the national security state.

Of course, it is possible most Americans oppose attacking Iran or helping Israel to attack Iran. But that is irrelevant to the propaganda machine.

The numbers will be used to make the case for mass murder the same way the numbers were used during all previous illegal, immoral, and criminal invasions.

A Neocon Preps U.S. for War with Iran

By Ray McGovern, Consortiumnews.com
August 12, 2010

I guess I was naïve in thinking that The Atlantic and its American-Israeli writer Jeffrey Goldberg might shy away from arguing for yet another war — this one with Iran — while the cauldrons are still boiling in Afghanistan and Iraq ...

Goldberg had just produced a new magnum opus for another prestige journal, The Atlantic, entitled “The Point of No Return,” explaining Israel’s case for bombing Iran and the reasons why the United States should join in.

On Wednesday, Goldberg swatted away softball questions from MSNBC anchor Andrea Mitchell, who joined in a friendly chat about whether the U.S. or Israel or both should opt for what Mitchell described as a “military response” to the “Iranian nuclear threat,” and when.

Goldberg claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu sees the challenge from Iran as being on a par with the Holocaust, believing that Iran is bent on the destruction of Israel with its 6 million people.

“Are you persuaded that Israel would take action against Iran unilaterally?” asked Mitchell. “Yes, I am; I am,” Goldberg responded.

Goldberg added that he believes that President Barack Obama is not prepared to live with a nuclear Iran but that it remains an open question whether he would take military action to prevent that eventuality. Goldberg said Obama “probably” would not.

And that being the case, Goldberg thought Netanyahu would be inclined to unleash Israeli forces unilaterally and absorb any damage this might do to bilateral relations with Washington.

At the end of the Mitchell interview, she lofted what appeared to be a canned question and, in response, Goldberg seemed downright eager to share what he called a “secret,” as he put it.

Mitchell asked when Obama planned to visit Israel. Goldberg, however, expressed a concern:

“The Israelis are worried about Obama coming; they don’t want him to be boo-ed wherever he goes; that’s the last thing they need. Obama is not popular in Israel in the way Bush and Clinton were.”

The unmistakable message: An Obama tour of Israel could be an ugly affair.

Chatting with Wolf

Goldberg walked through a similar discussion on the merits of war when he appeared on CNN, a guest of Wolf Blitzer’s “The Situation Room.”

Goldberg: “The question is what can the Obama administration do to stop the Iranians from pursuing the nuclear program … it seems unlikely to me at this point that Iran is simply going to say, because President Obama asks, you know, we’re going to end our nuclear program.”

Blitzer: “You have concluded that an Israeli air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities is — in your word — a near certainty?”

Goldberg: “Well, it’s a near certainty, in the long term, but even in the next year I give it a 50 percent or better chance. Next year, meaning by next July.”

Not that it probably would have mattered, but someone probably should have told Andrea Mitchell and Wolf Blitzer that more skeptical observers have described Goldberg’s previous “journalism” in very unflattering terms.

One critic deemed Goldberg’s pre-Iraq War reporting for The New Yorker as “a journalism-school nightmare: bad sources, compromised sources, unacknowledged uncertainties … with alarmist rhetoric that is now either laughable or nauseating, depending on your mood.”

For instance, the fact that many civilians were gassed as Iraqi and Iranian forces clashed on March 16, 1988, in the area of Halabja, just barely inside Iraq’s border with Iran, is beyond dispute.

However, what is not clear is the blockbuster charge that it was the Iraqis, rather than the Iranians, who used the deadly chemical warfare agents. The U.S. government has pointed the finger in both directions, often depending on which side of the conflict Washington was tilting toward.

A joint CIA and Defense Intelligence assessment focused in on the “blood agents (cyanogen chloride) deemed responsible for most of the deaths in Halabja and determined that the Iraqis had no history of using those particular agents, but that the Iranians did.

That particular CIA-DIA report concluded that, despite the conventional wisdom, “the Iranians perpetrated this attack.”

Dr. Stephen Pelletiere, a senior CIA analyst on Iraq during its war with Iran, told Roger Trilling of the Village Voice that he is one among many who believe that Goldberg’s account of the killings at Halabja was wrong and that the issue was far from academic.

Pelletiere said: “We say Saddam is a monster, a maniac who gassed his own people, and the world shouldn’t tolerate him. But why? Because that’s the last argument the U.S. has for going to war with Iraq.”

It may well have been the most emotionally riveting argument, I suppose.

Debunking the Junk

But what about Iraq’s alleged WMDs and supposed ties between Iraq and al-Qaeda? Goldberg made an attempt to include those canards as well, focusing mostly on chemical and biological warfare agents. (He left to the New York Times’ Judith Miller, who was later fired, and Michael Gordon, who is still chief military correspondent, to do the heavy lifting for the lies about Iraq’s supposed nuclear weapons.)

A final story about Jeffrey Goldberg’s pre-Iraq-invasion stories: Just a week before Congress bowed to Bush’s request for war authorization against Iraq, Goldberg was writing in Slate about the dangers of “aflatoxin,” which he had cited 15 times in his New Yorker article.

“Aflatoxin does only one thing well,” Goldberg wrote. “It causes liver cancer. In fact, it induces it particularly well in children.”

However, Goldberg’s obsession with “aflatoxin” didn’t stand up too well after the U.S.-led invasion found no evidence that Iraq still had bio-weapons stockpiles. Regarding aflatoxin, Charles Duelfer, the Bush administration’s chief weapons inspector in Iraq, concluded that there was “no evidence to link those tests [of aflatoxin] with the development of biological weapons agents for military use.”

Ken Silverstein of Harper’s, among the more serious journalists who have had macabre fun critiquing Goldberg’s contribution to the Iraq War effort, wrote “Goldberg’s War,” one of the best critiques.

Silverstein wrote:

“Whatever Saddam’s regime intended to do with the aflatoxin … it did not involve wholescale tot-slaughter. But it seems to me that Goldberg was out to prove that Saddam was singularly evil — a man who would kill kids using cancer, no doubt cackling with glee as he watched them expire — because the American public might be less willing to support a war if he was merely an evil dictator, which are a dime a dozen.”

But who is Jeffrey Goldberg and how did he achieve such influence, helping to create the false conventional wisdom that sleep-walked the American people into war with Iraq and is now pointing toward a new war with Iran.

For a 44-year-old writer, Goldberg surely has been around. He left college to move to Israel where he served with the Israeli army as a prison guard at the Ketziot military prison camp during the First Intifada; he also wrote for The Jerusalem Post.

Upon his return to the U.S., he worked for the Jewish daily Forward and eventually got hired by The New Yorker. Now, he’s a star writer for The Atlantic.

Pitching for War

Goldberg’s mission this time? Pitching war with Iran.

This time, Goldberg and the Israelis want us to buy into a syllogism without a valid major premise. Their argument presupposes that Iran has made the decision to develop nuclear weapons and is hard at work on such a program, which is what they want Americans to believe whether there’s evidence or not.

The Fawning Corporate Media (FCM) and the neocons who brought us the war on Iraq, and occasionally the President himself, speak as though Iran has restarted work on the nuclear weapons part of their nuclear energy program.

This internal government debate (and the external propaganda) is a replay of three years ago, when the FCM succeeded in convincing most Americans that Iran either had nuclear weapons or was on the verge of getting them.

President Bush and Vice President Cheney were out in front hyping the danger, whipping the American people into another war frenzy — when an honest National Intelligence Estimate stopped them in their tracks.

Two things saved the day: integrity and fear.

Integrity on the part of analysts who, after the corruption before the Iraq War, were able to revert to the tell-it-like-it-is-without-fear-or-favor ethos that obtained during my 27 years as a CIA analyst; and fear on the part of the senior U.S. military that Cheney and Bush were about to order them to commit U.S. forces to war with Iran.

The integrity played out during work on a congressionally mandated National Intelligence Estimate that it took almost all of 2007 to complete. Most of those intelligence officials who had “fixed” the intelligence on Iraq had been given the heave-ho.

New leadership was installed under the direction of a non-corruptible Director of the National Intelligence Council, Tom Fingar, from the State Department.

Under Fingar, intelligence analysts rose to the occasion on the delicate issue of Iran’s nuclear development program by performing a bottom-up assessment. There would be no “fixing” of intelligence around the policy. Main question: Had Iran decided to go for the bomb?

The NIE’s first sentence conveyed the unanimous conclusion of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies:

“We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.”

Fearing Another War

Fear now came into play and, for once, played a salutary role. Fear is simply a by-product of a sane appraisal of what war with Iran would mean. The senior U.S. military had enough good sense to be afraid and saw the NIE as an opportunity to stop the juggernaut toward war.

And so, they and those in Congress who had commissioned the NIE insisted that its key judgments be declassified and made public, despite reluctance on the part of the Director of National Intelligence to do so.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen and CENTCOM commander William “Fox” Fallon had been living in fear of a Cheney-inspired order to commit U.S. forces to war with Iran. Fallon actually had told retired Col. Patrick Lang, a few months before Fallon was cashiered,

“We are not going to do Iran on my watch.”

Fear? Yes, fear — an altogether sensible reaction. No commander worth his salt looks with equanimity at the prospect of being on the receiving end of an order that could decimate his troops and lead to a wider war for which his forces would not be adequate.

On a more personal basis, no commander wants to be faced with a choice between having to resign on principle on the one hand and carrying out an order he knows to be fatefully misguided on the other.

Good sense prevailed, over Cheney’s strong objections, and Bush sent Mullen to Israel in June 2008 with instructions to warn the Israelis in no uncertain terms not to provoke war with Iran with any expectation that the U.S. would pull their chestnuts out of the fire.

Fast forward to the present. Where is Iran now in its nuclear program?

When an important National Intelligence Estimate needs updating, the art form often chosen is what is called a “Memorandum to Holders” — in the case at hand, holders of the original NIE of November 2007.

Such a paper need not repeat the bottom-up research and analysis completed immediately prior to November 2007; it simply requires a close look at evidence acquired from the end of 2007 to the present to determine whether there is reason to change the key judgments of three years ago.

Pressure to Rewrite?

We hear nothing from our sources about any substantial change over the past three years. That is not what the Goldbergs and other neocons of this world want to hear, and this presumably is why the Memorandum to Holders has been held up for months and months. Not a good sign.

Authoritative statements for the record have been sparse but reassuring, inasmuch as they seem to confirm the 2007 NIE’s key judgments. Congressional testimony in February by then-Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, and in April by the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs revealed no major developments.

Moreover, Blair consistently hewed to the 2007 judgment that Iran’s eventual decision on whether or not to build a nuclear weapon can still be influenced by “the international community.”

Scattered statements by other high officials, including President Obama, sometimes convey a sense that Iran is again working toward a nuclear weapon, and the FCM has been leaving hints left and right that this is the case.

Folks like Jeffrey Goldberg refer casually, but intentionally, to “Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

The neocons seem to be as strong now as under George W. Bush, with their Real-Men-Go-to-Tehran-type macho undiminished.

Can integrity trump macho this time? Without a strong man at the helm in the intelligence community, it will be very difficult. And the administration let drop months ago that this time the key judgments of the Memorandum to Holders will not be made public.

Meanwhile, Goldberg and his neocon colleague flaks are trying to create as much pressure as they can on Obama to produce a scarier Estimate … or to delay the one in progress sine die.

The outlook would seem even bleaker were it not for the availability of WikiLeaks and other non-FCM news outlets that would be ready and willing to publish documents about what is actually going on behind the scenes.

It would seem a safe bet that there are enough folks with access to the Memorandum to Holders drafts to recognize swiftly any attempt to corrupt honest judgments.

Some government officials will probably be able to recognize their own conscience, their integrity and their oath to protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, as values that properly supersede other promises — like the promise not to release classified information that is a condition of employment.

Those who are tempted to exaggerate the threat from Iran will, at least, have to take into account how relatively easy it has become to evade the FCM’s gatekeepers and expose government dishonesty to the people.

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