"Nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, pestilences and earthquakes in divers places. All these are the beginning of sorrows. Then shall they deliver you up to be afflicted, and shall kill you: and ye shall be hated of all nations for my name's sake." (Matthew 24:8-9).
"Verily I say unto you, that this generation shall not pass, till all these things be done" (Mark 13:30).
Leaked U.S. diplomatic cables show China's frustration with communist ally North Korea and speculate Beijing would accept a future Korean peninsula unified under South Korean rule, according to the documents released by whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks.
The memos indicate the enormous import American and South Korean diplomats place on China's attitude toward the future survival of the isolated and impoverished hard-line communist regime in Pyongyang.
The release of the documents follows new tensions in the region with North Korea unleashing a fiery artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people a week ago. The regime also warned that joint U.S.-South Korean naval drills this week had pushed the peninsula to the "brink of war."
China "would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the US in a 'benign alliance' as long as Korea was not hostile towards China," then-South Korean vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, is quoted as telling U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Kathleen Stephens, in February.
The diplomatic cables warn, however, that China would not accept the presence of U.S. troops north of the demilitarized zone that currently forms the border between the two Koreas.
Economic opportunities in a reunified Korea could further induce Chinese acquiescence, Chun says.
Chun predicts the government in Pyongyang would last no more than three years following the death of ailing leader Kim Jong Il, who is seeking to pass power to son Kim Jong Un, a political ingenue in his 20s.
While China favors maintaining the status quo, it has little ability to stop a collapse and less influence over the authorities in Pyongyang than is widely believed.
"Beijing had 'no will' to use its economic leverage to force a change in Pyongyang's policies," Chun says, adding the North Korean leadership would continue refusing to dismantle its nuclear program in the absence of a more forceful Chinese approach.
Chun also dismisses the possibility of Chinese military intervention if North Korea threatened to descend into chaos.
China is preparing to handle any outbreaks of unrest along the border that could follow a collapse of the regime. Chinese officials say they could deal with up to 300,000 refugees, but might have to seal the border to maintain order, the memos say, citing an unidentified representative of an international aid group.
Chinese officials are also quoted as using mocking language in reference to North Korea, pointing to tensions between the two neighbors in contrast to official statements underscoring strong historical ties.
Then-Deputy Foreign Minister He Yafei is quoted as telling a U.S. official in April 2009 that Pyongyang was acting like a "spoiled child" by staging a missile test in an attempt to achieve its demand of bilateral talks with Washington.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton asserted Monday that WikiLeaks acted illegally in posting the material. Officials around the world have said the disclosure jeopardizes national security, diplomats, intelligence assets and relationships between foreign governments.
Five international media organizations, including The New York Times and Britain's the Guardian newspaper, were among those to receive the documents in advance.
Adding to heightened tensions on the peninsula, North Korea revealed two weeks ago the existence of a uranium enrichment facility that could provide the country with a second route for building a nuclear bomb.
China has largely rebuffed calls to use its influence to force Pyongyang to moderate its behavior, while opposing harsh economic sanctions or international censure. Beijing has responded to the latest crises by repeating calls for a return to long-stalled, six-nation denuclearization talks that the North has rejected.
Meanwhile, the chairman of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly, Choe Thae Bok, arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a five-day visit following a call last week from China for emergency consultations. Japan also says it will send an envoy for talks.
The 2,000 working centrifuges for processing uranium adaptable to the fueling of nuclear weapons, which North Korea showed off to visiting US scientist Prof. Siegried Hecker of Stanford University on Nov. 12, told US and Western intelligence that Pyongyang was shifting its weapons program to enriched uranium.
The plutonium facilities which yielded North Korea's estimated arsenal of 8-12 nuclear weapons were judged by the visiting American scientist to be dormant.
In the light of the Hecker report, US and Israel intelligence cannot avoid suspecting that Iran, with characteristic furtiveness, may have performed a similar transformation. After all, the North Korean, Iranian and Syrian nuclear programs have collaborated closely in the last decade and maintained a thriving give-and-take relationship that grows progressively stronger.
debkafile's intelligence sources note that Tehran maintains a permanent military mission in Pyongyang matched by a permanent North Korean mission in Tehran. Their primary task is to keep nuclear technology flowing uninterrupted between their two programs and making sure they benefit reciprocally from innovations. That way, they avoid duplicating research and save time and money.
In his report, Prof. Hecker writes:
"I have previously stated my concern about potential cooperation and exchanges in uranium technologies between North Korea and Iran."
Our sources stress that Pyongyang, Tehran and Damascus share more than technology; they have the same nuclear image of self and coordinate their diplomatic strategies. As a well-knit nuclear alliance, the trio challenge United States and seek to defy its leverage for dictating which countries are entitled to be nuclear-armed and which are not.
This bloc did not rise spontaneously; it was secretly crafted by China as a tool for diminishing America as a military power.
For ten years, Washington has tried to persuade Beijing to put a stop to Pyongyang nuclear ventures.
To distract attention from its lack of success, US analysts are trying to link the display of North Korea's nuclear advances to Prof. Hecker, including work on a light-water reactor, as bound up with the succession struggle and Kim Jong-Il's wish to impress the military with his son Kim Jon-un's nuclear credentials.
According to debkafile's analysts, Pyongyang's rationale is more far-reaching.
Although treated by the West as a pariah state with a failed economy, North Korea has managed to develop two advanced nuclear programs fueled by plutonium and now enriched uranium and export its technologies to Iran, Syria and, some Asian intelligence sources believe, Myanmar.
The sanctions initiated by President George W. Bush and his successor in the White House, Barack Obama, have been of no avail because of Chinese backing. Beijing has run Obama's drive to halt nuclear proliferation into the sand, while building up strategic interests in Tehran to a level comparable to its stake in Pyongyang.
According to OPEC figures, Iran's oil sales to China jumped in recent months by 30 percent to 597,800 barrels a day. Aggressive in its quest for energy, Beijing will do whatever it takes to protect its energy sources and supply routes.
On Nov. 10, the high-ranking Chinese official Tong Xiaoling said his government would expand its investments in developing Iran's oil and gas fields and building refineries. Those investments have already passed the $40 billion mark.
At this time, therefore, given China's calculations, North Korea's interest in selling nuclear technologies for hard foreign currency and Iran's relentless pursuit of a nuclear weapon, it should not be hard to anticipate Tehran following Pyongyang's brazen example before long. A Western or Arab nuclear expert may be invited to take a look at an advanced -- and banned -- nuclear plant or process undiscovered by Western intelligence, and displayed proudly as a fait accompli. Not only does North Korean nuclear and missile technology tend to catch on and spread, so too will the Hecker effect because nothing really stands in its way.
On Monday, Nov. 22, questions to the Obama administration about the professor's report drew this response:
The United States and its allies Monday accuse North Korea of being a danger to the region after it showed off its latest advances in uranium enrichment, but Washington is still open to talks. The US is hoping to revive the six-party talks over the North's nuclear facilities based at Yongbyon.
Closer to the firing line -- and therefore more realistic -- South Korea's defense minister Kim Tae-young said his country may consider having US tactical nuclear weapons deployed on its soil for the first time in 19 years, in the light of North Korea's latest escalation.
Israeli Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin took his leave from the Israel cabinet Sunday, Nov. 21, with a stern warning:
"Tel Aviv will be a front line in the next conflict," he said.
debkafile's military sources report:
Syria and Hizballah now possess thousands of surface missiles from Iran with enhanced ranges of up to 300 kilometers and they are being outfitted by Iranian engineers with guidance systems. The new guided Fateh-110, M-600 and Scud D missiles hardware can pinpoint any part of Israel within a 10-meter radius in defiance of Israel's aerial and anti-missile capabilities, say Israeli and Western missile experts.
Hizballah and Syria have been furnished by Iran with the means for fighting a new, far more comprehensive war.
All of Syria's chemical Scud C and D warheads have been converted into guided missiles, and so have the 1,000 Scud Ds kept in Syrian bases near the Lebanese border ready to push across to Hizballah in a military confrontation with Israel, which Hassan Nasrallah said ten days ago he would welcome.
During the three-week war of 2006, Hizballah launched 500 rockets a day -- relying on sheer, terrifying numbers against populated areas, mostly in the North -- to bring Israeli armed forces low.
A dozen a day of the guided, long-range weapons would do far more damage, say our military sources. Iran's allies would likely go for Greater Tel Aviv in order to sow demoralization in the most densely populated part of Israel and devastate its industrial and financial centers.
Earlier this month, Israel's Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, said it was possible that in the next war, large segments of the population would have to be evacuated from their homes. Former head of the Israel Mission Defense Organization Uzi Rubin said recently:
"The enemy has achieved aerial supremacy without even having aircraft."
Iran's fully-guided Fateh-110 rocket would enable Hizballah and Syria to strike critical Israeli facilities with dozens rather than hundreds of rockets, he said.
Hizballah and Syria have 1,500 warheads that could strike the Tel Aviv area.
"This is a revolution," said the missile expert.
debkafile's military sources note that Rubin did not mention Israel's missile and rocket defense systems, the Arrow, Iron Dome and David's Sling, as able to thwart the new Syrian and Hizballah guided weapons – for good reason. Those systems are not up to intercepting heavy hails of thousands of incoming missiles. Even if only scores reached their targets, the damage would be tremendous.
As for aerial strikes against launching sites, Hizballah has dismantled its missile bases and scattered the warheads widely apart in underground bunkers and natural caverns, from which they can be launched.
By bowing to Ankara's demand to omit Iran, Syria and their ballistic missiles as a threat from the NATO agreement to establish a missile shield base in Turkey, President Barak Obama has devalued any US security guarantees offered Israel - as well as negating the facility's avowed purpose. The missile shield and its location in Europe were conceived in the first place for detecting and defusing Iranian and Syrian ballistic missile before they reached Europe or the United States.
"For the first time we've agreed to develop a missile defense capability that is strong enough to cover all Nato European territory and populations as well as the United States," Obama declared Friday, Nov. 19, at the NATO summit in Lisbon.
The US president did not say against who or what. Neither did he reveal the full scope of US and NATO's surrender to Turkey.
debkafile's military sources report that the covert clauses in the deal additionally provide for the missile base to come under the command of a Turkish general. President Abdullah Gul held out on this point in discussions with President Obama and NATO leaders, following the lead given him by Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan of Monday, Nov. 15:
"Turkey would demand that NATO assign a Turkish commander to oversee the shield. Especially if this is to be place on our soil…," said Erdogan.
Turkey's leaders are very close to the Islamic Republic's extremist rulers and see nothing amiss in their deploying large portions of Iran's missile arsenal on Syrian and Lebanese soil (in Hizballah's keeping). A Turkish general in command of the NATO missile shield cannot be expected to regard threatening missile action by Iran, Syria or Hizballah in the same light as would President Obama or NATO Secretary-General Andres Fogh Rasmussen. He would simply follow the orders of his own prime minister.
So NATO's forward missile interceptor may be physically and technically located in Turkey but, under a Turkish commander, its usefulness as an operational shield for the West against the most concrete perils facing NATO members is nil.
In these circumstances, there is not much point in Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu holding out for American security guarantees, even after the US State Department spokesman stated Friday, Nov. 19,
"The United States is prepared to offer Israel written security guarantees if it would help to restart stalled Middle East peace talks."
Those guarantees were awarded Turkey at the NATO summit in Lisbon and, by extension, to Iran, Syria and their radical allies, whose missiles are poised on Israel's borders facing in only one direction .
It is important to remember that American missile defense systems are closely inter-linked with and slotted into corresponding Israeli missile interceptors, air defenses and intelligence.
The Lisbon summit confirmed in its final decision that the new missile shield will complement existing US plans - indeed the US system will also be put at NATO's disposal and eventually be "incorporated into a single coherent defense system."
So how can vital US-Israeli missile defense collaboration continue after Turkish generals take control of the NATO defense shield?
On October 28, a Hizballah war game demonstrated the ability of its special forces to overrun Lebanon in two hours. It took Israel 19 days to respond:
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi finally confirmed on Nov. 15 that the Shiite terrorists may seize power after the UN Tribunal indicts their leaders for the Hariri assassination.
The general's was dry - not a word about how Israel proposed to handle a violent hostile terrorist takeover of Beirut on Iran's behalf and the grave strategic peril it presented Israel.
One of the first targets Iran's surrogate plans to grab is Beirut International airport and harbor. Massive quantities of war materiel could then be delivered directly into Hizballah's hand in Beirut instead going the roundabout route through Syria's sea port at Tartous and Damascus airport as they do now.
So how will the IDF handle this brazen hostile act? Impose a belated blockade on Beirut and intercept Iranian freighters? Tehran has already made it clear that any party intercepting its shipping for searches would find itself at war with the Islamic Republic.
Will the Israeli Air force intercept Iranian air transports ferrying weapons and Revolutionary Guards fighters to sustain Hizballah's war machine against Israel?
Again, If Israel never once, in the four years since UN Security Council 1701 banned the import of weapons for Hizballah, fired a single shot to impede the vast quantities of arms smuggled in from Sytia to Hizballah since then, why suddenly now?
Prime Minster Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak appear to be sunk in a state of suspended animation as attested to by three events in the last two days:
Both of them, backed by certain high-ranking military officers have made a big deal of the security incentives they say the Obama administration is willing to pledge in return for its second, 90-day moratorium. One of those incentives is another 20 F-35 stealth warplanes on top of the first twenty Israel has already purchased.
(The Palestinians have meanwhile dug their heels in against resuming talks claiming the US has given Israel too many benefits.)
The value of the warplanes is not in question, only their relevance to Israel's military muscle in view of the fact that those planes are not scheduled for delivery before 2020 – that is in ten years' time!
Does anyone know how many nuclear bombs Iran will have amassed since then or whether any will be deployed in Lebanon?
All that can be said for sure about the year 2020 is that Barack Obama will no longer be president of the USA, Netanyahu prime minister of Israel nor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad president of Iran – even though as things stand today, the last of the three might yet make himself supreme ruler a lifelong position.
Therefore, what good are the US F-35 warplanes when today Israel which lives under active threats from Iran, Hizballah, Syria and Hamas?
An Israeli intelligence officer, who opted to stay anonymous, confirmed Sunday, Nov. 14, that Hamas had obtained surface missiles (Improved Fajr-5,made in Iran) with a range of 80 kilometers and therefore capable of exploding in the heart of Tel Aviv. He blamed Egypt for not doing enough to thwart the smuggling of illicit weapons through Sinai into the Gaza strip, but neglected to mention what Israel had done to thwart their passage into the Strip and deployment.
This approach is typical of the mindset afflicting Israel's government, military and intelligence decision-makers these days. They seem to think that they need only to sound the alarm about threats and Washington or Cairo will do the rest. Israel's enemies are left in peace to build up their strength and magnify the menace they pose without interference.
Monday, Nov. 15, Colonel Zvika Haimovitch of the Israeli air defense corps told a government-sponsored aerospace conference in Jerusalem that within two years, or 2015 at the latest, Israel's skies will be hermetically protected against enemy missiles. In the next two to five years "we will turn this vision into reality," he said. Israel's multi-layered air defense network will be fully deployed by 2015, "combining short-range rocket interceptors with kamikaze satellites that blow up ballistic missiles in space."
He mentioned the Iron Dome developed by Israel for shooting down rockets with ranges of 5-70 kilometers as one of those tiers, David's Sling for intercepting more powerful rockets and the Arrow III for boosting a satellite beyond the Earth's atmosphere to collide with an incoming missile.
debkafile notes that the same day, American military sources disclosed that the IDF had only lately halted the introduction of the first Iron Dome battery to operational use because the battalion that was to have operated it had not finished training. Those sources mentioned a delay of at least one year.
Col. Haimovitch would have done better to use his public platform to address real events such as Iran's five-day countrywide air defense exercise which started Tuesday, Nov. 16, on driving off US and Israel warplanes and missiles venturing into its airspace. However, Israel's top brass are taking the lead from its political leaders, preferring to talk in the abstract about future threats when real perils lurk just behind Israel's door.
The United States and South Korea prepared for war games Sunday as South Koreans demanded vengeance over a deadly North Korean artillery bombardment that has raised fears of more clashes between the bitter rivals.
The North, meanwhile, worked to justify one of the worst attacks on South Korean territory since the 1950-53 Korean War. Four South Koreans, including two civilians, died after the North rained artillery on the small Yellow Sea island of Yeonpyeong, which is home to both fishing communities and military bases.
North Korea said civilians were used as a "human shield" around artillery positions and lashed out at what it called a "propaganda campaign" against Pyongyang.
It claimed the United States orchestrated last Tuesday's clash so that it could stage joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea with the South that include a U.S. nuclear powered supercarrier — enraging the North and making neighboring China uneasy.
China sent a senior official, State Councilor Dai Bingguo, to Seoul on Saturday for talks with Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported. Dai, accompanied by chief Chinese nuclear negotiator Wu Dawei, discussed Tuesday's attack and international talks on ending North Korea's nuclear programs, it said.
The North Korean attack on an area with a civilian population marked a new level of hostility along the rivals' disputed sea border. Only eight months ago, according to the findings of a South Korean-led international investigation, a North Korean torpedo sank a South Korean warship in waters farther west, killing 46 sailors.
The aggression could be linked to the North's attempt to strengthen its government as it pursues a delicate transfer of power from leader Kim Jong Il to a young, unproven son. It also may reflect Pyongyang's frustration that it has been unable to force a resumption of stalled international talks on receiving aid in return for nuclear disarmament.
The attack laid bare weaknesses 60 years after the Korean War in South Korea's defenses against the North, which does not recognize the border drawn by the U.N. at the close of the conflict and which considers waters around Yeonpyeong as its territory.
The skirmish prompted President Lee Myung-bak to replace his defense minister on Friday.
At a funeral Saturday near Seoul, South Korea's marine commander, Maj. Gen. You Nak-jun, vowed a "thousand-fold" retaliation for the attack. Dignitaries and relatives laid white flowers at an altar for the two marines killed in the North's attack. The mother of one of the victims fell forward in her chair in grief.
Passers-by paused at Seoul's main train station to watch funeral footage on a big screen.
"Once the enemy attacks us, it is our duty to respond even more strongly," said student Jeon Hyun-soo, 19. "The South Korean people want this."
Elsewhere in Seoul, about 70 former special forces troops protested what they called the government's weak response and scuffled with riot police in front of the Defense Ministry, pummeling the riot troops' helmets with wooden stakes and spraying fire extinguishers.
"Let's go!" the activists shouted, as police, numbering several hundred, pushed back with shields.
North Korea's state news agency said that although "it is very regrettable, if it is true, that civilian casualties occurred on Yeonpyeong island, its responsibility lies in enemies' inhumane action of creating a 'human shield' by deploying civilians around artillery positions."
The North said its enemies are "now working hard to dramatize 'civilian casualties' as part of its propaganda campaign."
South Korea was conducting artillery drills Tuesday from the island, located just 7 miles (11 kilometers) from North Korea's mainland, but fired away from the mainland.
The North said it warned South Korea to halt the drills on the morning of the attack, as part of "superhuman efforts to prevent the clash to the last moment."
The North said that Sunday's planned U.S.-South Korean war games showed that the United States was "the arch criminal who deliberately planned the incident and wire-pulled it behind the scene."
The war games starting Sunday and involving the USS George Washington supercarrier display resolve by Korean War allies Washington and Seoul to respond strongly to any future North Korean aggression. However, Washington has insisted the drills are routine and were planned well before last Tuesday's attack.
North Korea on Saturday warned of retaliatory attacks creating a "sea of fire" if its territory is violated.
President Lee told top officials "there is a possibility North Korea may take provocative actions during the (joint) exercise," and urged them to coordinate with U.S. forces to counter any such move, according to a spokesman in the president's office who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing official protocol.
Washington and Seoul have pressed China to use its influence on Pyongyang to ease tensions. China is impoverished North Korea's biggest benefactor and its only major ally.
On Friday, the North conducted an apparent artillery drill within sight of Yeonpyeong island. The warning to Seoul and Washington came as the top U.S. commander in South Korea toured Yeonpyeong island to survey the wreckage from the rain of artillery three days earlier.
The North's artillery barrage Tuesday destroyed civilian homes as well as military bases on Yeonpyeong Island.
President Lee has ordered reinforcements for the 4,000 troops on Yeonpyeong and four other Yellow Sea islands, as well as top-level weaponry and upgraded rules of engagement.
Most of the islanders fled to the mainland after the barrage set off fierce blazes that destroyed many of their communities. It will take six months to two years for island communities to rebuild, disaster relief official Kim Sang-ryul said.
Soldiers assembled toilets Saturday for temporary shelters being built on the island by teams of relief workers.
Some South Koreans criticized the government for leaving Yeonpyeong inadequately protected.
"Military-wise, the emergency facilities should have been prepared for something like this, so I think the South Korean military must reinforce them," said Kim Min-yang, a 27-year-old company employee. "I also think we need more dialogue with North Korea."
China has warned the United States against engaging in military activity on its coastline.
“We oppose any military act by any party conducted in China’s exclusive economic zone without approval,” China’s Foreign Ministry replied in response to a question about the inclusion of a U.S. Aircraft carrier strike group participating in the joint exercise.
The exclusive economic zone is a maritime zone up to 200 nautical miles from a country’s coast.
It was reported today that Obama would be speaking with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao in coming days. China has refused to condemn North Korea’s attack.
The Chinese statement arrives ahead of U.S.-South Korean naval exercises, according to Reuters. Earlier in the week, the Pentagon sent the USS George Washington and four other Navy ships to the Yellow Sea after North Korea shelled South Korean soldiers and civilians in response to South Korean military exercises.
In a statement from the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet, the military exercises are described as a measure to show the United States’ “commitment to regional stability through deterrence.” Joint military exercises with the South Koreans begin on Sunday. North Korea has promised “waves of retaliation” if provoked.
Asian experts and political commentators warn the provocative military exercises near the North Korean and Chinese borders may result in war on the Korean Peninsula. North and South Korea have engaged in heightened saber-rattling since the incident earlier in the week.
On Friday, North Korea engaged in artillery drills within sight of the island bombed last week. The attack killed two soldiers and two civilians. Gen. Walter Sharp, the U.S. commander in South Korea, was on the island touring the damage at the time.
“None of the latest rounds hit the South’s territory, and U.S. military officials said Sharp did not even hear the concussions, though residents on other parts of the island panicked and ran back to the air raid shelters where they huddled earlier in the week as white smoke rose from North Korean territory,” reports the Associated Press.
“The situation on the Korean peninsula is inching closer to the brink of war,” a report issued by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said. Pyongyang’s military “precisely aimed and hit the enemy artillery base” on the island as punishment for South Korean military drills, said a North Korean official, who also warned of a “shower of dreadful fire” in response to the joint U.S.-South Korean exercises. “Gone are the days when verbal warnings are served only.”
North Korea has the largest artillery force in the world. It maintains 80,000 special forces and is believed to have some 13,000 artillery pieces deployed along the border.
In South Korea, the situation has resulted in political chaos.
Following the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, South Korean president Lee Myung-bak accepted the resignation of his defense minister and ordered more troops and advanced weaponry to the maritime border with North Korea.
“We should not ease our sense of crisis in preparation for the possibility of another provocation by North Korea,” spokesman Hong Sang-pyo said, quoting the South Korean president. “A provocation like this can recur any time.”
Myung-bak appointed his security adviser Lee Hee-Won as his new defense minister.
“The South Korean media is baying for blood (or at least air strikes), the South Korean defense minister has fallen on his sword, and extra troops have been posted on the outlying islands,” writes Peter Foster for the Telegraph.
“If the North Koreans continue to act in this provocative way, it’s fair to ask the question, where does that all end in terms of South Korea’s ability to simply continue to turn the other cheek,” said Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd. “This question goes to the heart of the political and security order of the world, [and] it’s important, I believe, for China to step up to the plate,” said Rudd after talking to the U.S. secretary of state, Hillary Clinton.
“The pressing task now is to put the situation under control and prevent a recurrence of similar incidents,” said Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi today after talking with Clinton by phone.
Yang Jiechi also spoke with the South Korean foreign minister and the North Korean ambassador to China.
When North Korea tested a nuclear device last year, China issued bland criticism and urged Pyongyang to resume diplomacy. After a South Korean navy ship was sunk, most likely by a North Korean torpedo, Beijing sent its sympathies but called the evidence inconclusive.
Now that North Korea has unleashed an artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people — including two civilians — and raised tensions in the heavily armed region, Beijing again appears unwilling to rein in its neighbor.
For all China's growing international might, its tolerance of North Korea's wayward behavior shows how differently Beijing sees the world — or at least its corner of it.
"There is zero chance of China, either in open or in private, putting major substantive pressure on North Korea," said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Beijing's Renmin University.
As impoverished North Korea's most important diplomatic ally and source of crucial food and fuel assistance, China holds the sort of influence that could bring Pyongyang to heel. But keeping the region stable so that China may continue its upward trajectory is the Chinese leadership's No. 1 priority. If that means putting up with the occasional North Korean provocation, experts say, so be it.
China has reasons to worry if the current, tenuous peace dissolves. It lost an estimated 400,000 troops in the 1950-53 Korean War. Another conflict or a meltdown of North Korea's dictatorship could send hundreds of thousands of North Koreans across the border, burdening Chinese provinces that only in recent years recovered from painful restructuring of the planned economy. Worse, a South Korean victory would bring to China's threshold a U.S. ally that hosts American military forces.
Following Tuesday's bombardment, Beijing has so far shied away from calling North Korea to task.
In its first written statement about the incident, China's Foreign Ministry said China feels regret about the loss of lives and property and urged all parties to avoid escalation and restart dialogue.
The statement by spokesman Hong Lei said the relevant parties should "oppose any actions that harm the peace and stability on the peninsula."
While it said that China was worried about the developments, it did not condemn either side.
State media, the only media there is in China, maintained a mostly studied neutrality, describing the skirmish as an exchange of fire.
"China is very much concerned with the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula, as both the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) are China's close neighbors," the Xinhua News Agency quoted Zha Peixin, a member of the legislature's foreign affairs committee, as saying.
China's strategy to steady North Korea has exacted costs. Beijing's refusal to criticize North Korea after the sinking of South Korea's naval corvette, the Cheonan, in which 46 sailors died, offended Seoul, a key investor and trade partner which had been drawing closer diplomatically. In the United Nations, China shielded North Korea from punishment over the incident.
China's protection of North Korea at times seems so unreasonable that it adds to misgivings among Japan, Vietnam and other nations already upset over Beijing's more forceful assertion of its territorial claims in the East and South China seas.
Relations with Washington may suffer too, just two months before Chinese President Hu Jintao wants to pay a pomp-filled state visit.
President Barack Obama has called upon Beijing to restrain its ally. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said U.S. diplomats had delivered a message to China that it was "pivotal" to changing North Korea's behavior, adding that Beijing has a responsibility to make it clear to Pyongyang that deliberate attempts to inflame tensions with Seoul are not acceptable.
But some American officials and independent analysts have questioned the amount of influence that China actually has with its neighbor, and warned against relying on the Chinese to change North Korean actions.
Far from backing away from Pyongyang, China has in recent years doubled down on its support. As Japan, South Korea and others have reduced trade and aid in recent years in response to North Korean nuclear and missile tests, China has stepped up deliveries of food and other assistance.
China accounted for half of all North Korea's imports and took a quarter of its exports in 2008, according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service. That was before the North's relations with South Korea began souring, taking tourism and investment programs with them.
Politically, Beijing has upped its engagement too, sending a stream of leaders to Pyongyang and twice hosting reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong Il this summer. The first trip came weeks after the Cheonan sinking. The second time came just before North Korea's Worker's Party held a rare conclave and then a nationwide pageant for the elevation of Kim's son, Kim Jong Un, as dictator-in-waiting. Chinese Politburo member Zhou Yongkang stood with the elder Kim during the festivities.
The steadfastness of Beijing's support at the expense of its international image and relations with Seoul and Washington have raised criticisms even in China that the North Korean tail sometimes wags the Chinese dog. Chinese officials and experts acknowledge the risk, saying Beijing's leverage is limited, given that it is unwilling to throw its economic heft.
"Even if China tried to tell North Korea what to do, it's unlikely they would easily listen," said Gong Keyu, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center at Shanghai's Institute for International Studies.
China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.
Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.
"About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.
The two countries were accustomed to using other currencies, especially the dollar, for bilateral trade. Since the financial crisis, however, high-ranking officials on both sides began to explore other possibilities. The yuan has now started trading against the Russian rouble in the Chinese interbank market, while the renminbi will soon be allowed to trade against the rouble in Russia, Putin said.
"That has forged an important step in bilateral trade and it is a result of the consolidated financial systems of world countries," he said.
Putin made his remarks after a meeting with Wen. They also officiated at a signing ceremony for 12 documents, including energy cooperation.
The documents covered cooperation on aviation, railroad construction, customs, protecting intellectual property, culture and a joint communiqu. Details of the documents have yet to be released.
Putin said one of the pacts between the two countries is about the purchase of two nuclear reactors from Russia by China's Tianwan nuclear power plant, the most advanced nuclear power complex in China.
Putin has called for boosting sales of natural resources - Russia's main export - to China, but price has proven to be a sticking point.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who holds sway over Russia's energy sector, said following a meeting with Chinese representatives that Moscow and Beijing are unlikely to agree on the price of Russian gas supplies to China before the middle of next year. Russia is looking for China to pay prices similar to those Russian gas giant Gazprom charges its European customers, but Beijing wants a discount. The two sides were about $100 per 1,000 cubic meters apart, according to Chinese officials last week.
Wen's trip follows Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's three-day visit to China in September, during which he and President Hu Jintao launched a cross-border pipeline linking the world's biggest energy producer with the largest energy consumer.
Wen said at the press conference that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow has "reached an unprecedented level" and pledged the two countries will "never become each other's enemy."
Over the past year, "our strategic cooperative partnership endured strenuous tests and reached an unprecedented level," Wen said, adding the two nations are now more confident and determined to defend their mutual interests.
"China will firmly follow the path of peaceful development and support the renaissance of Russia as a great power," he said.
"The modernization of China will not affect other countries' interests, while a solid and strong Sino-Russian relationship is in line with the fundamental interests of both countries."
Wen said Beijing is willing to boost cooperation with Moscow in Northeast Asia, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in major international organizations and on mechanisms in pursuit of a "fair and reasonable new order" in international politics and the economy.
Sun Zhuangzhi, a senior researcher in Central Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the new mode of trade settlement between China and Russia follows a global trend after the financial crisis exposed the faults of a dollar-dominated world financial system.
Pang Zhongying, who specializes in international politics at Renmin University of China, said the proposal is not challenging the dollar, but aimed at avoiding the risks the dollar represents.
Wen arrived in the northern Russian city on Monday evening for a regular meeting between Chinese and Russian heads of government. He left St. Petersburg for Moscow late on Tuesday and is set to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday.
Major powers expressed concern or alarm at North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island on Monday.
Among North Korea's neighbors, Russia said it saw a "colossal danger" of an escalation in fighting on the Korean peninsula and China said it was imperative to resume six-party talks aimed at ending the north's nuclear weapons program.
Following South Korean firing exercises near disputed waters, North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells at the island of Yeonpyeong. Two soldiers were killed and houses set ablaze in one of the heaviest bombardments of the South since the Korean War ended in 1953.
The United States urged North Korea to "halt its belligerent action," saying that it was "firmly committed to the defense of our ally, the Republic of Korea, and to the maintenance of regional peace and stability."
Japan's top government spokesman said that North Korea's action was "unforgiveable." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku told a news conference in Tokyo that Japan "strongly condemns" the strike.
A French diplomatic source said the U.N. Security Council could hold an emergency meeting in the next day or two.
"It is necessary to immediately end all strikes," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters during a visit to the Belarusian capital Minsk. "There is a colossal danger which must be avoided. Tensions in the region are growing."
China, the impoverished North's only powerful ally, was careful to avoid taking sides, calling on both Koreas to "do more to contribute to peace.
It is imperative now to resume the six-party talks," a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry told reporters.
China's economic and diplomatic support have been important to shoring up its otherwise isolated neighbor, whose leader Kim Jong-il has visited China twice this year to strengthen ties.
The NATO alliance, the European Union and Britain all condemned the North Korean attack, and Germany joined them in expressing concern and calling for restraint.
Analysts saw North Korea's action as a calculated tactic.
They said it could be aimed either at boosting its leverage in international talks -- a tactic it has used in the past -- or at reinforcing the domestic standing of the young heir apparent anointed by Kim Jong-il, his son Kim Jong-un.
"The shelling is likely succession-related in that the DPRK (North Korea) is seeking to build political capital for Kim Jong-un by attempting to enhance the perception of Jong-un's power base," said Brittany Damora, analyst at the risk advisory firm AKE.
"In the North's view, Yeonpyeong is a great target in that it can strengthen the perception of its position without a real risk of counter-attack."
Alastair Newton, political analyst at Nomura in London, said the South had made clear that it wanted to avoid an escalation, and that the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan in March, although denied by the North, had arguably been more serious because of the 46 lives lost.
"Bottom line: together with possible preparations for a third nuclear test and the revelation at the weekend of the uranium enrichment facility, this looks like it could be North Korea playing hardball in anticipation of coming back to the negotiating table," Newton said.
One European diplomat said it was conceivable that the attack could be an attempt by a faction in North Korea's secretive leadership to sabotage attempts at rapprochement with the outside world.
The political risk consultancy Stratforsaid the attack was at odds with other recent North Korean actions, noting that Pyongyang had sent a list of delegates to Seoul for Red Cross talks due to take place on Thursday.
"With the ongoing leadership transition in North Korea, there have been rumors of discontent within the military, and the current actions may reflect miscommunications or worse within the North's command-and-control structure, or disagreements within the North Korean leadership," it said.
Tensions are near the boiling point on the Korean peninsula after North Korea shelled a South Korean island, killing two South Korean soldiers. What's behind this latest spike in hostilities between the longtime adversaries, and just how concerned should we be -- especially since we have 25,000 military personnel stationed in South Korea? Here's what you need to know.
What happened, exactly?
Early Tuesday, North Korea fired artillery shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, which sits off the disputed maritime border between the two countries. The attack killed two South Korean marines and wounded 18 soldiers and civilians. It prompted an exchange of fire between the two sides, involving around 175 artillery shells and lasting about an hour.
The North accused South Korea of having started the exchange by firing shells inside North Korean territory during a set of South Korean military exercises that the North called "war maneuvers." The South denies that charge, saying that its soldiers were merely conducting military drills and that no shots fell in North Korean territory.
The North Korean attack was the first on a civilian area of South Korea since the Korean War.
Tensions have been running high since March, when a South Korean naval vessel in the same area was sunk, killing 46 sailors. Seoul blamed a North Korean torpedo attack, though the North has denied involvement.
Some analysts have linked Tuesday's action by the North to the impoverished nation's need for food. The Obama administration has refused to remove sanctions against the North, imposed in response to its nuclear program.
"They see that they can't pressure Washington, so they've taken South Korea hostage again," Choi Jin-wook, a senior researcher with the South Korean Institute for National Unification, told the New York Times. "They're in a desperate situation, and they want food immediately, not next year."
Does this have anything to do with North Korea's leadership situation?
Kim Jong Il, the North's ailing and reclusive leader, is believed to be gradually shifting power over to his son, Kim Jong Un, who in September was promoted to the rank of four-star general.
Some analysts believe the transition has made North Korea eager to demonstrate its military power. Kim Jong Il famously employed an aggressive "military first" approach to politics, and spoke of turning the North Korean army into a "pillar of the revolution." The regime may now want to show the world that the same military-first policies will prevail under his successor.
"The son's power base is derived from the military, and the power of [the] military is greater than ever," Cheong Seong-Chang, a fellow at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute, told Time magazine.
The United States wants North Korea to resume the six-party talks on the country's nuclear program. The talks, which also include Russia, China, Japan in addition to America and the two Koreas, were launched in 2003, after North Korea opted out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The talks' aim is to arrive at a peaceful diplomatic agreement to contain the North's nuclear capacity -- but the talks have been in limbo since 2008, and earlier this week, an American scientist revealed that he had been shown a sophisticated North Korean nuclear enrichment facility, throwing the resumption of the talks into further doubt.
Today's incident adds another obstacle, experts say.
The revelation of the uranium facility and Tuesday's attack on South Korea may both be expressions of the North's concern that the Obama administration and its allies are unlikely to offer concessions such as the easing of sanctions.
"I think they realize they can't expect anything from Washington or Seoul for several months, so I think they made the provocation," Choi Jin-wook, senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification, told CNN.
How scared should we be?
South Korea has placed its military on "crisis status," and Prime Minister Lee Myung-bak has reportedly ordered strikes on North Korea's missile base if the North makes any "indication of further provocation." It appears unlikely, though not impossible, that further military action will result.
South Korea does not have an active nuclear weapons program. North Korea is believed already to have eight to 12 nuclear bombs. But nuclear issues aside, any military conflict between the countries could badly destabilize the region, especially if the North Korean government were to collapse -- an outcome that some South Koreans fear could lead to a Chinese takeover.
Tensions between North and South Korea, which remain technically at war, have sparked military clashes on and off since a 1953 ceasefire was signed.
Here is a timeline of major incidents including some involving U.S. forces allied with the South:
January 1968 - Thirty-one heavily armed North Korean spies infiltrate deep into Seoul with a mission to assassinate then President Park Chung-hee; 28 are shot to death.
January 1968 - North Korea seizes U.S. spy ship USS Pueblo and for 11 months holds captive its crew of 83, one of whom dies.
April 1969 - A North Korean MiG-17 fighter jet shoots down a U.S. spyplane killing all 31 aboard.
August 1976 - North Korean soldiers kill two U.S. military officers using axes in a dispute over trimming a tree in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
October 1983 - Seventeen senior South Korean officials including several cabinet ministers are killed when a bomb goes off in the capital of Burma, now Myanmar. A Burmese court rules that it was a North Korean plot.
November 1987 - A Korean Air flight departing Baghdad and bound for Seoul explodes in mid-air over the Bay of Bengal, killing 115. A North Korean spy is convicted by a South Korean court for planting the bomb. Another North Korean believed to have been involved commits suicide.
September 1996 - A North Korean submarine on a spy mission runs aground in the South and the crew flee, sparking a massive manhunt. More than 30 people die, including 24 of the crew, 11 of whom are found together dead.
December 1998 - South Korean navy sinks a submersible North Korean spy vessel off the east coast of the peninsula. One North Korean scuba diver is found dead.
June 1999 - At least 17 and as many as 80 North Korean sailors are killed in naval clashes near the disputed maritime border between the Koreas, the Northern Limit Line (NLL), in the Yellow Sea. One of the North's vessels is sunk, others damaged. The battle follows nine days of incursions by the North into South Korean waters.
June 2002 - In a bloody skirmish between South and North Korean naval vessels in the Yellow Sea, one South Korean frigate is sunk and six South Korean sailors die. As many as 13 North Koreans may have perished.
July 2003 - South Korea says its troops returned machine gun fire after the North shot at an observation post in the DMZ between the two states.
May 2006 - Two North Korean soldiers enter the DMZ and cross into South Korea. They return after South Korean soldiers fire warning shots.
July 2008 - A 53-year-old South Korean housewife, out for morning stroll, is shot dead by the North Korean military on a restricted beach near North Korea's Mount Kumgang. The South Korean government suspends tours to North Korea.
November 2009 - The two Koreas engage in a brief naval fight just south of their maritime border damaging vessels from both sides.
January 2010 - The two Koreas exchange artillery fire near the maritime border.
March 2010 - The South Korean navy corvette Cheonan is torpedoed, killing 46 sailors. Seoul blames the North for the attack, which Pyongyang denies. A joint civilian and military investigation team including experts from the United States, Australia, Britain and Sweden, concluded that a North Korean submarine fired the torpedo.
November 2010 - North Korea fires dozens of artillery shells at the island of Yeonpyeong hitting a South Korean military base and setting houses ablaze. Two soldiers are killed and 20 people are injured. South Korea says it was conducting military exercises before the exchange but insists test firings were not aimed toward North Korea.
President Richard Nixon issued Executive Order #11647 on February 14, 1972, which reorganized the United States into 10 federal regions... The unconstitutional goal of this reorganization into 10 super regions is to set the stage for the abolishment of governments from the federal, to the state, to the county, and even to the local, levels. The objective is to set in place the form of government that could be implemented during a planned crisis, that would effectively strip us of our elected representational form of government. Suddenly, we would find ourselves being governed by officials who are not elected, nor responsible to any voters.
This regional system is apparently unlimited in its scope and powers. Thus, Americans could very well discover that they are back under the control of the type of government that our Founding Fathers spent their lives and fortunes overthrowing! Worse still, we could find ourselves facing the type of dictator which we have seen ruling Russia and Nazi Germany.
This regional system is also apparently a military structure. We will see this more clearly when the federal program called "General and Complete Disarmament" (Public Law 87-297) is fully integrated according to this 10-region system of government. We also will probably not see this 10-region system implemented until we are under the simultaneous crises of which we have spoken many times.
When America is under the following planned crises, we will witness this changeover to this 10-region system, most likely with FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) exercising initial control. These are apparently the crises that are planned:
All-out nuclear warfare in the Middle East (or neutron warfare).
All-out nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula (or at least the threat of such a war).
Arab terrorists threatening to devastate American cities with atomic, chemical or biological weapons (or actually carrying out this threat).
Simultaneous riots in many American cities to further cause panic.
American Presidency weakened because of scandal and infighting with Congress and the Courts to further cause panic among American voters.
The Stock Market will crash, causing absolute panic amongst all Americans. Jobs will immediately begin to be lost, thus further adding to the panic.
Antichrist is supposed to appear at the end of the Middle East crisis. If this occurs, then "aliens" and visible "angels" are to appear to urge all peoples of the world to support him and his plan.
At this moment, the head of FEMA will suddenly appear, announcing that he is taking "temporary" control, and quoting all the various Executive Orders and laws passed by Congress giving him all the authority he needs to assume the powers of government, of all branches of our former Constitutional government.
Once this changeover to the new 10-region system of government occurs, amidst all these contrived and planned crises, you may rest assured the End of the Age is upon us.
Satellite images of activity at North Korea's main nuclear complex support Pyongyang's claims it is constructing an experimental light water reactor in defiance of global pressure to denuclearize, a U.S. think tank says.
South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan said that by building such a reactor, the North was violating U.N. resolutions banning the secretive state from any nuclear activity.
Analysts say the construction of the new reactor, along with reports of activity at a nuclear test site which have fueled speculation of a third atomic test, could be used as leverage by the North at the negotiating table.
North Korea has said it wants to return to stalled aid-for-disarmament talks, but both Seoul and Washington have dismissed its pledges to denuclearize as insincere.
Even though it has exploded nuclear devices, North Korea has not shown it has a working nuclear bomb.
North Korea has tried to secure a light-water reactor for a number of years, claiming such a project would be for peaceful energy purposes. The type of reactor is considered relatively proliferation-resistant, meaning it is unlikely to be diverted for an arms program.
Analysts are skeptical of North Korea's ability to build a light-water reactor indigenously, because it requires key components that only advanced nuclear states such as the United States can provide.
The Institute for Science and International Security reported that images taken on November 4 showed the frame of a large building under construction at the Yongbyong site, saying this backed reports by experts that the North was building a reactor.
Siegfried Hecker, a former chief of the Los Alomos National Laboratory, and former U.S. nuclear envoy Jack Pritchard, have both visited the North this month and reported that Pyongyang was building a 25-30 megawatt reactor.
"Dr. Hecker informed ISIS that the new construction seen in the satellite imagery is indeed the construction of the experimental light water reactor," the Washington-based ISIS said on its website.
South Korea's Kim rejected the North's claims that it has the right to peaceful use of atomic energy, saying it is a right only under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT). North Korea quit the pact in 2003, just months after the latest nuclear standoff began in late 2002.
PUSH FOR 2012 COMPLETION
North Korea froze its Yongbyon nuclear site under a 2005 deal with five regional powers in return for aid, but is reported to have restarted activities there recently as the six-way disarmament process remains stalled for two years.
A five-megawatt graphite-moderated reactor at Yongbyon has produced arms-grade plutonium that officials and experts believe the North used to build several nuclear bombs.
Hecker was quoted by Japan's Kyodo news agency as saying the light water reactor would take several years to complete.
Pritchard -- who met with the North's top nuclear envoy Kim Kye-gwan and Ri Gun, the North's deputy negotiator for the stalled six-party talks -- said he was told by an official that the North wanted to complete the reactor by 2012.
The official added that all construction projects under way in Pyongyang are running toward a 2012 deadline to mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-Sung's birthday, the JoongAng daily reported. Pritchard said he was skeptical of the deadline.
Iran has successfully tested its own version of a missile system that Russia declined to supply amid concerns Tehran might be seeking nuclear weapons, a military official was quoted as saying on Thursday.
Russia infuriated Iran in September when it canceled the S-300 missile order after heavy lobbying from the United States and Israel, which said the system could be used to help Iran shield its nuclear facilities from possible future air strikes.
State-run Press TV quoted a commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards as saying Tehran had adapted another Russian-made missile system to perform like the more sophisticated S-300.
"We have developed the system by upgrading systems like the S-200 and we have tested it successfully," Brigadier General Mohammad Hassan Mansourian said, according to Press TV's website.
Some Western analysts doubt Iran's ability to replicate the S-300, a precision, mobile, long-range air defense system that can detect, track and destroy ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and low-flying aircraft.
However, some Western officials suspect Iran's development of more sophisticated missiles could serve the goal of attaining a deliverable nuclear weapon.
MEDVEDEV BLOCKS SALE
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev banned delivery of the S-300s in September, saying it would violate expanded U.N. sanctions over Iran's refusal to curb a nuclear programme many countries fear is aimed at making a bomb, a charge it denies.
Medvedev was due to meet Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad later on Thursday at a summit of Caspian Sea states in Azerbaijan where the issue of reopening nuclear talks was likely to be raised.
Iran, which says it is seeking nuclear technology for solely peaceful ends, has agreed in principle to return to talks -- on ice for more than a year -- with Russia, the United States, China, Britain, France and Germany, possibly on December 5.
The venue and agenda of the talks has yet to be set.
Iran has said it is not willing to negotiate away its right to nuclear technology and, speaking at the summit, Ahmadinejad said Iran would not bend to threats or sanctions.
"If they want to achieve positive results they should stop thinking as aggressors," he told a news conference. "They should change the old methods, otherwise the results will be the same. No embargoes can change the Iranian people."
World powers say Iran's right to nuclear technology for civilian ends is not an issue. They say the point of talks would be to get Iran to suspend enrichment in exchange for benefits including access to the means to develop nuclear energy without the proliferation risk of an enrichment programme.
Tehran's refusal to suspend or restrain uranium enrichment -- a process which can produce bomb material if done to a high level -- led to a fourth round of U.N. sanctions in June and tougher bilateral measures after that.
The United States and Israel have said they do not rule out a pre-emptive strike on Iran if diplomacy fails.
Iran, is conducting what it calls its biggest ever air defences drill this week to test its ability to deter any such attack. Officials said on Thursday they had successfully tested a new missile system called Mesab which can detect and destroy medium- and low-flying aircraft.
Iran has conventional long-range missile systems including the Shahab 3 and the Sejil which could be used to hit Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East region.
Talks between Israeli and U.S. officials aimed at reviving Middle East peace negotiations have hit snags over incentives promised by Washington to persuade Israel to resume a freeze of Jewish settlement building.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled the U.S. inducements to his cabinet last weekend and appeared hopeful the ministers would back plans for a temporary halt to building in the occupied West Bank to overcome a hurdle to the peace talks.
However, an Israeli official said on Friday the United States had not yet provided the guarantees that Israel wanted, with Washington reluctant to commit to paper all the promises Netanyahu says he was offered verbally last week.
The latest snag concerned a pledge that Israel says U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made to provide the country free of charge 20 F-35 stealth warplanes worth $3 billion.
Politicians said Washington was backtracking and now wanted some sort of payment for the coveted fighter aircraft.
"It looks like the free stealth fighters have slipped," said Benny Begin, a minister from Netanyahu's Likud party who is opposed to the proposed U.S. deal, warning that Washington was setting a trap to extract major concessions later down the line.
"One may wonder if you cannot agree to understandings from one week to the next, what could happen over three months," he told the Army Radio on Friday.
The U.S. state department is making no comment about the situation, which if unresolved would be hugely embarrassing for both parties, while Netanyahu has said "intensive" discussions continued to get the necessary "understandings."
"If I receive such a proposal from the American government, I will bring it before the security cabinet and I have no doubt that my colleagues will accept it," he said late Thursday.
FOCUS ON BORDERS
President Barack Obama invested substantial political capital in persuading the Palestinians to resume direct talks with Israel in early September, after months of mediation.
But, true to their warnings, the Palestinians halted negotiations when Netanyahu refused to extend a 10-month partial settlement moratorium when it expired at the end of September.
Washington hoped its diplomatic and defense enticements would persuade Israel to renew the freeze for 90 days, opening the way for three months of intense negotiations that would focus on the future border of a Palestinian state.
However, Netanyahu's coalition allies demanded a written pledge from the United States to make clear the building freeze did not include occupied land in East Jerusalem and to spell out there would be no U.S. pressure for any subsequent moratoria.
The Palestinians themselves have expressed outrage in private over reports of the U.S. offer, saying it was a bribe to get Israel to fulfill basic international obligations.
Israel's military on Friday condemned the publication of names and photographs of 200 Israeli soldiers on a website that called them "war criminals."
Alongside the photographs, the site also published the home addresses and ID numbers of many of the Israelis. They included senior commanders and low-ranking soldiers who the site claimed participated in the three-week offensive Israel launched in Gaza in late 2008.
The accuracy of the published details could not be confirmed. A statement from the Israel Defense Forces said the military "deplores the publication of personal details of hundreds of IDF soldiers and officers, without any factual basis whatsoever."
The military said, however, that the information "poses no real threat to those whose name ended up on the list."
It was put up earlier this week by anonymous activists in Britain and hosted by a U.S.-based Web service, which took it down by Friday citing "breach of terms," according to the Israeli daily Haaretz.
The website said the information came from an anonymous source who was "presumably" serving in the Israeli military. The military is investigating the possibility that the information was leaked by a soldier, according to a report in the daily Maariv.
"The people listed here held positions of command at the time of the attack," the website said, "therefore, not only did they perform on behalf of a murderous state mechanism but actively encouraged other people to do the same."
It also included what appeared to be an implied threat to harm the soldiers, urging readers, to "do your bit so that this virtual list may come to bear upon the physical."
Israel began its Gaza offensive in December 2008, after years of intense rocket fire from the coastal strip ruled by the Iran-backed militant group Hamas. The fighting devastated the crowded Palestinian territory, killing around 1,400 people, most of them civilians, according to Palestinian and international human rights groups. Thirteen Israelis were killed.
In Britain and elsewhere in Europe, anti-Israeli activists have sought to use the principle of universal jurisdiction to pursue past and current Israeli officials linked to military operations that killed civilians. No cases have gone ahead, but Israeli officials have canceled trips abroad over concerns they could be arrested. The matter was discussed during a visit by Britain's foreign secretary to Israel earlier this month.
The Gaza offensive sharply reduced the rocket fire but did not end it entirely. Early on Friday, Gaza militants fired a military-grade rocket into southern Israel, causing light damage and no casualties.
Militants usually fire mortar shells or small rockets they manufacture themselves and only rarely use military-grade projectiles like the relatively powerful Grad launched early on Friday.
None of the armed groups in Gaza immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.
Last week, the world’s two most populous nations, conducted a joint military exercise in the name of “anti-terrorism.” Both nations have been working toward mutually beneficial ends since 2006.
The Chinese foreign minister commented that “the military training was intended to enhance mutual understanding and trust and strengthen bilateral exchanges in the field of anti-terrorism, deter the ‘three evil forces’ of terrorism, separatism and extremism, and promote the development of the bilateral strategic partnership.”
Chinese and Indian officials plan to continue military activities to bring the two nations closer (ChinaView.cn, December 25, 2007).Joint military exercises between these two nations are important, given a couple of different factors.
As we consider a joint military force of India and China, it would be very easy for these two nations to field a joint army of 200 million men. The final configuration of the armies from the east is likely yet to be established, but it is also likely that we are seeing the foundations of such a confederation being laid right now.
Then the sixth angel sounded: And I heard a voice from the four horns of the golden altar which is before God, saying to the sixth angel who had the trumpet, “Release the four angels who are bound at the great river Euphrates.” So the four angels, who had been prepared for the hour and day and month and year, were released to kill a third of mankind. Now the number of the army of the horsemen was two hundred million; I heard the number of them (Revelation 9:13-15).
Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared. And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs coming out of the mouth of the dragon, out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. For they are spirits of demons, performing signs, which go out to the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty. Behold, I am coming as a thief. Blessed is he who watches, and keeps his garments, lest he walk naked and they see his shame.” And they gathered them together to the place called in Hebrew, Armageddon (Revelation 16:12-16).
Thus, even the two largest “kings of the East” are setting the stage to fulfill end-time biblical prophecies.
November 14, 2010
Russian, Indian Troops Complete Military Exercises
Russian and Indian troops completed a drill to kill a fictional terrorist leader in the Indian Himalayas as part of the Indra-2010 joint military exercises, which finished on Saturday.
"The experience we gained from the exercises is useful. We learned a lot from our Russian colleagues," Commander of the Indian contingent Brigadier-General Gopal said.
The commander of the Russian contingent, Major-General Vladimir Glinin said he was satisfied with the results of the military exercises.
The INDRA-2010 exercises were launched on October 16 at Chaubattia, in Uttarakhand, a mountainous area near India's border with China and Nepal.
Russia sent more than 200 troops from its 34th mountain brigade, based in the North Caucasus, to join the Indian troops in the drills.
The Indian and Russian military have conducted joint INDRA exercises since 2003, including biannual peacekeeping drills.
India's military cooperation with Russia goes back nearly half a century, and the Asian country accounts for about 40 percent of Russian arms exports.
China and Russia were holding a joint military exercise on Wednesday, with the drill seen as a chance to beef up anti-terrorism cooperation after the recent flare-up of violence in China's Xinjiang region.
The "Peace Mission 2009" five-day exercise in northeast China comes weeks after China's worst ethnic unrest in decades between Muslim Uighurs and Han Chinese in the far-western region of Xinjiang that killed at least 197 people.
"To some extent, the July 5 Xinjiang riot pushed forward anti-terrorism cooperation between China and Russia," the China Daily newspaper quoted Major Wang Haiyun, a former Chinese military attache to Russia, as saying.
Russia itself has been grappling with rising violence in the North Caucasus regions of Ingushetia, Dagestan and Chechnya. Russia and China are also wary of a rising tide of instability in post-Soviet Central Asia that has spilt over from Afghanistan.
"The situation in Central Asia itself, including Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is not so good, so that's the most likely area of practical cooperation. And in fact they're learning new ways to fight against Islamic insurgents and Uighurs," said Vassily Kashin, a Chinese military expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Moscow.
Russia and China are core members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which some experts say is an attempt to form an alternative military bloc to NATO to counter the rising threats of separatism and extremism in Central Asia.
The SCO's members also include the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
WORLD'S POLICEMAN
"Some NATO officials ... fancy it is up to them to look after world order, performing the role of the world's policeman," said Russian military analyst Viktor Litovkin.
"But the situation in Afghanistan shows that NATO without Russia, without assistance from the Central Asian states, China and other leading nations of the region is unable to deal alone with the Taliban and al-Qaeda."
But some analysts said the smaller scale of the current bilateral exercise compared with a similar one in 2007 under the SCO, reflects a recent cooling of Sino-Russian military ties.
"In reality they are downgrading or reducing their military ties for the past couple of years," said Andrew Yang, the head of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taiwan.
"(China has) already reached a stage where they can produce or develop their own indigenous and advanced weapons systems. They're no longer totally reliant on Russian support."
When asked during a video link with Beijing what new weapons Russia would show off during the drills, military analyst Litovkin said he believed there would not be any.
he exercise will involve some 3,000 army and air force personnel and over 40 fighters and helicopter gunships.
Russia's Zvezda television channel said the movement of Russian troops and weapons to China for the exercises was the biggest deployment of forces abroad by the nation's Far Eastern Military District since World War Two, when the Soviet Union crushed Japan's armed forces in China and Korea.
A Chinese fighter-bomber crashed during preparations for the military drill with Russia on Sunday, killing two pilots.
India is likely to conduct an anti-terror military exercise with China from December 6-14. The joint military exercise will take place in Belgaum district of the southern Indian state of Karnataka.
The exercise code-named 'Hand in Hand 2008' will be attended by a Chinese contingent of 137 soldiers which is reported to have already reached the training site. According to Chinese defence ministry spokesperson, the joint military exercise is conducted as a part of a defense exchange and cooperation agreement signed by the two countries in 2006.
During the nine-day anti terror military exercise, the two armies will exchange weapons and other equipments apart from sharing communication tactics. The upcoming exercise will not only benefit the armies on utilizing military tactics of each other, but also boost the understanding and trust between them. The armies of both the nations had organized their first joint anti-terrorism training last year in Kunming in southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan.
At the moment, such types of joint anti-terror military exercises are very crucial for terror-prone India. The country has been literally devastated by series of bomb blasts and terror attacks in the past few months. Regular attacks and threatening by terrorist outfits are wake-up calls for the defense forces of the country to plunge into battlefield against them.
Religions in China: Daoist (Taoist), Buddhist, Christian 3%-4%, Muslim 1%-2% Note: officially atheist (2002 est.)
Religions in India: Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.9%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.1% (2001 census)
Religions in Russia: Russian Orthodox 15-20%, Muslim 10-15%, other Christian 2% (2006 est.) Note: estimates are of practicing worshipers; Russia has large populations of non-practicing believers and non-believers, a legacy of over seven decades of Soviet rule
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